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Milwaukee Bucks: Better against the Western Conference than the East

By Josh Cornelissen

Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images
Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images /
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The Milwaukee Bucks play in the league’s weaker Eastern Conference, but for some reason have a better record against the stronger Western Conference.

The Milwaukee Bucks are locked into a dogfight at the bottom of the Eastern Conference playoff picture. After a Sunday matinee victory over the San Antonio Spurs, Giannis Antetokounmpo and company have climbed back to seventh place, a more desirable position than eighth.

That may be true in a vacuum, but it is especially true this season as the likely 2-seed, the Boston Celtics, are dealing with a myriad of injuries to key players, from Kyrie Irving to Marcus Smart. While the Toronto Raptors have had their share of postseason hiccups, they are the most formidable foe outside of LeBron James in the East. Fall to eighth, and it is a date with Canada.

To maintain their position in seventh-place, or even move further up the standings, the Bucks will need to win as many games as possible down the stretch. The path would seem to be clear, with six of their next eight games against lottery teams. The two playoff teams in their path, the Golden State Warriors and the Boston Celtics, are two of the league’s most injury-riddled teams. Things could be breaking right for the Bucks.

The problem is that they have been unable to sustain consistency this season, beating strong foes and losing to inferior ones. Digging deeper, an even more peculiar trend emerges. The Milwaukee Bucks have been more successful against the Western Conference than against the East. On the surface that may seem rather mundane, but as the layers are peeled back it becomes even more surprising.

In games against the Eastern Conference the Bucks are 24-23, just a hair over .500. By comparison, every other Eastern Conference playoff team is at least seven games over .500 against the East. That includes the Miami Heat, who are 26-19 against the East despite being a half-game behind the Bucks in the standings.

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Looking to the other side of the tracks, the Bucks are 15-11 against the Western Conference, good for a .577 percent winning percentage. That winning percentage is fourth in the conference, behind just Toronto, Boston and Philadelphia. Milwaukee also joins Boston and Atlanta as one of just three teams in the East with a better winning percentage against the West than against their Eastern brethren.

This reality stands out even further when evaluated in the context of the two conferences. Historically the West has been the better of the two conferences, year-after-year winning the inter-conference battle and sending the best teams to the postseason.

The reasons for this difference are too complicated to suss out here. It could be the owner imbalance, as the Western Conference has held many of the league’s most respected owners. The same goes for coaches, as Gregg Popvich and Phil Jackson oversaw dynasties out West. It probably has to do with the East’s poor draft record, at least in part.

Ultimately it has reflected where the talent has been, and it has been out West. This summer saw that disparity only intensify, as All-Star players such as Paul Millsap, Jimmy Butler, Jeff Teague, Paul George and Brook Lopez all moved West. Before the season, FiveThirtyEight charted the layout of talent in the league and how the West has dominated since Y2K — and that this season was the cream of the talent-hogging crop:

ESPN similarly evaluated the movement according to their ESPN Rank tool:

That talent disparity has certainly mellowed out, as Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kyrie Irving, DeMar DeRozan, Joel Embiid and Victor Oladipo have all turned in All-NBA type seasons, but the truth still remains that the West is better than the East. Head-to-head the Western Conference is 229-199 against the East. Looking deeper than simple record, the Western Conference has seven teams with at least a +2.0 net rating; the East has just three (Toronto, Boston and Philadelphia).

This all combines to show how unlikely and surprising it is for the Bucks to be finding such success against the West. Only four teams in the East have a winning record against the West, and the other three are projected as the three of the top four teams in the conference (again, Toronto, Boston and Philadelphia).

Milwaukee has been incredibly mediocre against the teams directly around them in the standings. When facing other Eastern Conference playoff foes, the Bucks are just 8-16. With one game still to go against the 76ers, the Bucks have lost every other meaningful tiebreaker in the conference.

The Bucks have been inconsistent against the league’s dregs as well, winning a much higher percentage of their contests but not in dominant fashion. Milwaukee is 16-7 against expected lottery teams in the East, a similar percentage to their record against such foes in the West.

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Where Milwaukee has truly stood out is against Western Conference playoff teams. The Bucks are 7-7 against such squads, with nearly as many wins in 14 tries as in 24 against the weaker East. Milwaukee has swept the season series against San Antonio and against Portland, and racked up wins against Minnesota, Oklahoma City and Utah.

Without these wins against the Western Conference, the Bucks may very well be outside the playoff picture looking in. There is no rule that says a team has to win the games that make sense to win — if there were, then sports would be more fun. Milwaukee’s path to 39 wins has been quirky but equally valid.

For the immediate future, the Bucks need to hope they can continue to cash in their Western success. Tuesday night they face the Los Angeles Clippers in the first night of a four-game Western Conference road trip. That contest will be crucial for both teams, as the Clippers fight for a playoff berth and the Bucks fight for the right to play Boston and avoid Toronto.

They also get to play the Los Angeles Lakers, effectively playing for nothing without the rights to their first round pick and the playoffs officially out of reach; the banged-up Golden State Warriors, who may be without three of their four All-Stars; and the Denver Nuggets, reeling as the playoffs begin to slip away. It’s not unquestionable to think Milwaukee could go 3-1 or even 4-0 on this trip.

Next: Milwaukee Bucks: Checking in on the progress of D.J. Wilson

However things turn out on their road trip, or when they return home to face a supposedly easy final two weeks, the Bucks will need to shake their Eastern Conference malaise and learn how to beat their fellow playoff teams. If not, then their trip to the postseason could be a brief stay.

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