Analyzing the potential playoff rotation for the Houston Rockets

The Houston Rockets are a deep team with lofty playoff expectations. What should be the team’s consistent playoff rotation?

The Houston Rockets are an extremely deep team, which is something that you will never hear any coach complain about. Having 10 quality players in your rotation is extremely useful to combat the grind of the regular season and keep your star players fresh for the playoffs. While Mike D’Antoni doesn’t have the reputation of playing a large rotation, he has extended it since the All-Star break to cut down his starters’ minutes.

However, rotations get shortened in the playoffs, often to eight or nine players at the most, leaving the Rockets (and D’Antoni) in a precarious position when it comes to choosing who to play come playoff time.

Since Joe Johnson joined the team, he has been receiving consistent playing time, averaging 23.3 minutes per game in the 15 games he has appeared in for Houston. However, he continues to struggle significantly, as he has only hit 31 percent of his 3-pointers, has a true shooting percentage of just 49.5 percent and a Player Efficiency Rating of 6.3. Johnson simply hasn’t been effective for the Rockets, and would be a liability come playoff time as teams focus in on attacking him defensively.

Another player that has received significant minutes since joining the team is Gerald Green. After joining the team in late December, Green carved out a significant spot in the rotation due to his scorching shooting and the injuries that kept Chris Paul and James Harden out of the lineup. Once Johnson joined the team, Green’s role was reduced for a couple of weeks, though he has received more minutes as of late, playing 21.7 minutes per game in Houston’s last 10 games.

Green’s shooting is extremely valuable for the Rockets, but even that might not get Green a spot in the playoff rotation, simply as a result of how deep the Rockets are when fully healthy.

Once the playoffs start, it’s likely that the Rockets will roll out this nine-man rotation:

• Guards: Paul, Harden, Eric Gordon
• Wings: Trevor Ariza, Luc Mbah a Moute, P.J. Tucker
• Bigs: Clint Capela, Ryan Anderson, Nene

There will be matchups where Anderson plays backup center and Nene doesn’t see the floor, and there also may be matchups where Anderson doesn’t see the floor due to his relatively poor defense. However, it’s likely that those nine players will be receiving the large majority of playoff minutes, with Green and Johnson playing here or there if the team needs a scoring punch (in Green) or a tested playoff veteran (Johnson).

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Anderson’s role will be the most interesting in the playoffs, as he has been shifted into a reserve role as a result of both his injury and the team’s increased focus on the defensive end of the floor. While Tucker doesn’t provide the elite floor-spacing that Anderson does, he is certainly capable of hitting the corner 3-pointer (40.6 percent on such shots this season) and playing much better defense than Anderson.

The Rockets have begun to play Anderson nearly exclusively at the backup center position, surrounding him with quality defenders such as Paul, Mbah a Moute and one of Tucker or Ariza in order to prevent Anderson from having to guard the better offensive players.

However, such a lineup still exposes the lack of rim protection that Anderson provides, making the Rockets vulnerable to physical teams that attack the paint or teams that have good rebounding big men.

There will be games where Anderson plays less than 10 minutes and games in which he plays close to 20 if his shot is falling and he is active on the boards. While his spot in the playoff rotation is not as secure as the other seven players ahead of him, he should see consistent playing time due to his incredibly valuable floor-spacing, which Harden and Paul will need if they hope to continue isolating at such a high rate with as much success as they have had in the regular season.

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In the end, it’s hard to find faults in the Rockets’ potential playoff rotation. They boast quality shooters, incredible isolation players and creators, and several high-quality defenders to throw at opposing offenses. Whether there are consistent playoff minutes for their more one-dimensional players or not, the Rockets have the rotation to combat any and every opponent they face in the playoffs.