Indiana Pacers: Surviving the injury to Domantas Sabonis

It’s been nearly a week since Domantas Sabonis went down with a badly sprained left ankle. Here’s why the Indiana Pacers have struggled in his absence.

For at least a few hours last Tuesday, the Indiana Pacers and their fanbase held their collective breath.

In the moment, it looked bad. Really bad.

In a league full of very large humans, Joel Embiid is just about as big as they come. As his mammoth backside came crashing down directly on the ankle of breakout sensation Domantas Sabonis, it looked like the young Lithuanian’s sophomore campaign might be over.

Fortunately, the X-rays came back negative.

Sabonis has been officially listed as day-to-day since the injury, but has yet to play in the two games since and has already been ruled out for Monday’s tilt against the Los Angeles Lakers. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the Pacers have lost both games Sabonis has missed.

The reason why has everything to do with who has replaced him in the lineup.

One-trick pony

Al Jefferson is a wonderful veteran presence, and at 33 years old is still one of the deadliest low-post scorers in the game. Just look at this array of moves and smooth jumpers straight out of a time capsule from 1985:

Jefferson was one of the bright spots for Indiana in its first game sans Sabonis, but it was telling that despite a big night — 20 points on 9-of-15 shooting, his highest scoring output this year — the Pacers only outscored the Toronto Raptors by three points in Jefferson’s 25 minutes. They ultimately lost at home, 106-99, which they followed up with a 109-102 loss against the Washington Wizards.

Part of the reason why Jefferson’s offensive output hasn’t helped stem the tide is that he offers little resistance on the opposite end of the court, as you can see here:

This is in stark contrast to Pacers starting center Myles Turner, who is a big part of an Indiana defense that has been the fourth-most efficient in the league since the trade deadline. As you can see, Turner’s activity often leads to fast break buckets for the always ready-to-run Victor Oladipo.

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The Pacers are third in the league in both overall transition points per possession and points per possession off steals, according to Cleaning the Glass. Turner is definitely the more defensively apt of the two young Indiana bigs, but Sabonis more than holds his own.

Here, you can see how simple decisiveness and positioning leads to another Oladipo fast break:

Overall, the Pacers have an above-average defense with Turner on the floor, an average defense with Sabonis on the floor, and a below-average defense with Jefferson on the floor.  That’s only part of the problem though.

Slowing to a hault

One might think Jefferson’s offense makes up for his deficiencies on the other end, but the numbers indicate that hasn’t been the case. For all he does individually, he doesn’t have the mind meld with Oladipo that the All-Star guard shares with both Sabonis…

and Turner:

Jefferson also doesn’t offer any modicum of floor-spacing, and as noted above, his lack of defense results in fewer transition opportunities. The Pacers are a slower team with Big Al on the floor, and their pace with him in the game is the second-lowest among the 11 Indiana players with more than 400 minutes of court time this year.

The overall offensive numbers when Oladipo shares the floor with his big men tell a pretty clear story. With Jefferson, the team scores just 101.6 points per 100 possessions; with Turner, that number jumps up to an impressive 110.6, and with Sabonis, it’s a near elite 113.5.

Turner himself missed the loss to the Washington Wizards after leaving the Toronto Raptors game with an ankle injury of his own. He’s currently questionable for Monday night.

Next: NBA Rookie of the Year ladder - Week 23

This mini-skid has dropped the Pacers from third to fifth in the East. If they want to keep the dream season humming along at the same pace it’s been going, they had better hope both of their young bigs make it back to the court in short order. Veteran savvy is nice, but in a playoff race where every possession matters, they’ll need every weapon at their disposal to avoid any further drop-off.