The Milwaukee Bucks’ midseason identity crisis
By Max Carlin
Ever since the dismissal of head coach Jason Kidd, the Milwaukee Bucks have been a radically different team, and the NBA season is not kind to midseason identity crises.
It often takes NBA teams a little while to develop an identity. Those growing pains can be frustrating, as teams with copious talent struggle to play at the levels they’re capable of reaching. Typically, though, after that initial period marked by miscues and lapses, teams settle in, hunker down and push through the bulk of the season without interruption.
That is, unless there’s a shock to the system. If there’s a jolt and a gear comes loose, the whole machine is thrown out of order.
In the NBA, that jolt could be anything: an injury, a trade, an off-court situation. For the Milwaukee Bucks, it was the firing of much-maligned head coach Jason Kidd.
Since Kidd’s firing on Jan. 22, the Bucks have looked nothing like the team we came to know over the first half of the season. For better or worse, the Bucks have lost their identity.
In 45 games from the start of the season through Jan. 21, Kidd’s Bucks were eighth in the NBA in offensive rating at 107.1 and 25th in defensive rating at 107.5. Those defensive struggles, given the defensive talent up and down the Milwaukee roster, were unacceptable and surely a big part of why Kidd is now unemployed.
In 20 games since Kidd’s firing, the Bucks have vaulted all the way to fourth in defense during that span, posting an outstanding defensive rating of 103.3.
Some of that improvement can surely be attributed to a change in defensive scheme. Under interim head coach Joe Prunty, Milwaukee has moved away from the ultra-aggressive, trap-heavy defense that marred the Kidd era.
The Bucks are allowing fewer corner 3s post-Kidd, a direct consequence of the altered defensive scheme, but that doesn’t account for the team’s radical defensive improvement by itself.
There’s also certainly an argument to be made that in a less energy-consuming defensive system, players are no longer tiring themselves out scrambling to recover to open shooters after trapping pick-and-rolls, and are therefore better equipped to last 48 minutes.
Odds are, the Bucks’ defensive renaissance has been the product of a perfect storm of a better system, a rejuvenating All-Star break and a little bit of luck (opponent shooting has fallen off dramatically since the coaching change).
Welcome as the defensive improvement is, the Bucks have taken an equally concerning step back. Since Jan. 22, the Bucks have the NBA’s 20th-best offensive rating at 106.3.
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For this reversal in identity, the mechanism is quite clear. Kidd’s firing happened to coincide with a rather unwelcome development for the Bucks: Giannis Antetokounmpo’s efficiency taking an absolute nosedive.
Giannis’ efficiency started to crater about a week before Kidd was fired. In 40 games from the start of the season through Jan. 14, Giannis averaged 28.4 points per game on 62.2 percent true shooting. Both are decidedly elite marks. Since Jan. 15, Giannis is down to 25 points per game on 55.4 percent true shooting. League-average true shooting is 55.7 percent.
Giannis’ struggles have spelled struggles for the Bucks. Prior to Giannis’ downward spiral — while Kidd was still in Milwaukee — the Bucks were elite offensively with Giannis on the floor, running an offensive rating of 109.5. Since his struggles began, the Bucks have posted an offensive rating of 105.8 with him on the floor.
What, then, is responsible for one of the best players in basketball’s efficiency falling off a cliff? Part of Giannis’ decline was likely inevitable.
Through Jan. 14, he shot impossibly well close to the rim. Inside five feet, he shot 71.3 percent. From 5-9 feet, he shot 42.7 percent. Attempts from those areas comprised 66 percent of his shots.
Since Jan. 15, Giannis has shot 68.1 percent inside five feet and 33.3 percent from 5-9 feet. Those marks are in line with what he did last year: 67.8 percent inside five feet and 34.9 percent from 5-9 feet. Giannis is one of the best finishers in the world, but even for him, the level at which he was finishing early in the year was unsustainable.
Undoubtedly, another factor is fatigue. Giannis himself has said he plays too much, and he’s right. He leads the NBA in minutes per game at 37.3, an unreasonable burden to place on any player.
Much like with the team’s defensive improvement, Giannis’ (and, therefore, the team’s) offensive decline has been due to a coincidence of undesirable factors: fatigue, regression and a cold stretch (it has been just 21 games).
When Kidd was fired, the Bucks inarguably became a better team, with their net rating jumping from -0.4 under Kidd to +3.0 since (17th to ninth). However, they also became a radically different team, and doing that in January is beyond unusual.
Cementing an identity, knowing how you can and will specifically win, is essential to an NBA team. In that vein, this season is largely a lost one for the Bucks. There has been too much change, too much transformation.
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More so than anything else, the Bucks need an offseason. They need time under their new head coach, time to determine who they’ll be for the next chapter of the Giannis era. Only then will they be able to determine who they are and how they’ll win consistently.