Golden State Warriors: Pros and cons of starting JaVale McGee at center
The Golden State Warriors came out of the All-Star break with a new-look starting lineup, with JaVale McGee replacing Zaza Pachulia at center. Here, we examine the reasons for the move, and whether or not it is viable long-term.
When the 2018 All-Star break hit, the Golden State Warriors were playing uninspired basketball. Yes, they only trailed the Houston Rockets by half a game for the NBA’s best record, but for a team with two pantheon guys and two more Hall of Fame hopefuls, trailing anybody is a disappointment.
Steve Kerr knew he was not reaching the team. He tried changing the rotation, playing through rough stretches without timeouts, even letting his guys coach a game on their own. While it is tough to call these moves abject failures, something still wasn’t clicking. The Dubs went 4-4 in their final eight pre-break games.
After the week off, Kerr made his most dramatic coaching decision since June 2015. While replacing Zaza Pachulia in the starting lineup with JaVale McGee is hardly as earth shattering as giving Andre Iguodala his first start of the season in Game 4 of the Finals, it was still a relatively big move from the usually conservative Kerr.
With McGee as the starter, the Warriors are 5-0. They are defending at a better rate (100.3 defensive rating, as opposed to 103.7 before the break), and the team seems energized.
Of course, the timing of all this makes cause and effect impossible to parse. Great teams often coast into the break before turning on the jets in the second half. Attributing this very normal turnaround to McGee’s insertion is dangerous.
So, without focusing too much on the team’s high quality play of late, let’s attempt to break down the big-picture reality and implications of McGee replacing Pachulia in the starting lineup.
Pros
The most obvious plus to starting McGee is that he can take advantage of being left wide open. With Pachulia, it is the opposite — opponents capitalize on his presence by leaving him alone.
Despite their high turnover rate, the Warriors are as disciplined offensively as any team outside of San Antonio. They are programmed to make the right read and play within the system. When a guy is open under the hoop, they instinctually feed him.
This is exactly what defenses are banking on with Pachulia. They bait the Warriors’ four All-Stars into feeding him, and live with the results.
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This has surprisingly worked out fine for Golden State this season. Pachulia is shooting a career-high 69 percent at the rim (71st percentile among bigs), and the Stephen Curry/Klay Thompson/Kevin Durant/Draymond Green/Pachulia lineup has an offensive rating of 117.5. But Pachulia never finished above the 33rd percentile at the rim in his first 14 seasons, and should regress to that level.
McGee is a highly flawed player, but he has always been stellar at the basket. His 80th percentile shooting at the rim this year is his lowest figure since 2011-12, and it should go up as his minutes with the starters increase.
Few humans, if any, have the combination of wingspan, hand size, leaping ability and mid-air coordination that McGee does. This does not make him the league’s best lob threat (put a defender in front of him, and everything changes) but it does make him a perfect lob threat to pair with the best offensive quartet in the league — rarely is a defender in front of him.
If McGee is defended, that’s a win for Golden State too. A man on McGee means a chance for the All-Stars to play 4-on-4. The 29-year-old has also improved dramatically as a passer, to the point where he can make many of the post passes to cutters than Pachulia and David West are masters of.
Cons
Defensively, it’s more of a mixed bag. The numbers say that McGee is an upgrade (92.9 defensive rating with the starters, compared to 109.2 for the starters plus Pachulia), but there is a ton of noise here.
Up until his insertion into the starting lineup, McGee only played with the starters when Kerr wanted him to. This was heavily dependent on matchup and game situation. Against the right team, McGee is a defensive force due to his length and motor. He defends in transition, and can be an impact shot-blocker.
Against the wrong team, he’s a disaster. He still has no clue where to position his body defending the pick-and-roll. He goes for every block, and the league’s higher I.Q. drivers consistently finish over him with floaters and runners. When they miss, he’s out of rebounding position.
As a starter, he’s going to face far more bad matchups than he has to this point.
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This leads to the larger issue of starting McGee. His role over the year-and-a-half he’s spent with the Warriors has been as a sparkplug. A checkmate move. When the offense is stagnant, the shift from Pachulia to McGee is game-changing. Kerr has always found the right moments to utilize him, while feeling no need to play him in less-than-optimal situations.
Ultimately, Pachulia is the better basketball player. He sets better screens, passes better, boxes out, defends the post and stays in position defensively. Certain matchups are problematic for both, but for the sake of continuity, it makes more sense to start Pachulia and use McGee discretionarily than vice-versa.
Pachulia is also far less useful off the bench. Both he and McGee are perfect fits alongside the starters, but McGee is more capable of playing in mixed lineups. Bench scoring is a major weakness for Golden State, while things like passing and screening are not as needed. By starting Pachulia and bringing McGee off the bench, Kerr has gotten the most out of two roster spots. By flipping their roles, he will get less out of each.
That does not mean the move is a bad one. McGee is an energizer, and the Warriors have lacked energy at the opening tip for much of this season. By that logic, Kerr is utilizing McGee the same way he always has — in an optimal circumstance. He is by no means tied to the decision; come playoff time, the Warriors can go back to Pachulia.
They can also go to Jordan Bell, which may be the real endgame here. By most measures, Bell is the best big man on the team outside of West.
The difference between Bell and West is that West does not need to play with other great players. He has terrific chemistry with Shaun Livingston, Andre Iguodala and Omri Casspi, and does not need to be open at the rim to score. He is a dynamite mid-range shooter and strong post scorer. Bell, meanwhile, is a rich man’s McGee — he feasts on lobs and gets back in transition, without the rebounding or overall defensive deficiencies.
As the rookie works his way back to form after returning from injury, the move to McGee is a logical transition. It is also logical as a change of pace, a wakeup call, an experiment or whatever else it could be called.
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It is not a long-term answer to the Warriors’ problems, but if McGee as a starter fixes the team’s short-term effort issues, it will have a long-term impact.
All stats courtesy of Cleaning The Glass and NBA.com