Milwaukee Bucks: Why sign Shabbaz Muhammad?

On Thursday night, news broke the Milwaukee Bucks would sign the newly bought-out Shabazz Muhammad, leaving just about everyone asking, “Why?”

When ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported on Thursday night that (former) Minnesota Timberwolves wing Shabazz Muhammad had agreed to a contract buyout and was hoping to sign with a playoff contender, two thoughts came to mind:

1. Woj is doing Muhammad’s agent a favor, pretending that an NBA team — forget a playoff team — was interested in the services of the fifth-year wing out of UCLA.
2. I genuinely wish Muhammad the best of luck, because he’s going to need it.

The Milwaukee Bucks, evidently, had different plans.

According to Yahoo! Sports‘ Shams Charania, a union between the two parties is imminent:

The Bucks are waiving guard Sean Kilpatrick to create the necessary roster space to sign Muhammad.

Now, there are a few logical explanations for why the Bucks would make such a move. First of all, Muhammad has a lot more size and heft than Kilpatrick. He’s more of a wing/forward than Kilpatrick, who’s probably best as a ball-in-his-hands guard.

The positional argument doesn’t make a lot of sense though. Matthew Dellavedova should be back sooner rather than later, but Malcolm Brogdon should still be sidelined for a considerable amount of time. The Bucks need guard depth. Meanwhile, on the wing/forward front they have a nice collection of depth, especially following the emergence of rookie Sterling Brown.

Well, maybe the Bucks just love Muhammad’s game?

That one seems equally unlikely. Offensively, Muhammad is an anachronism to the extreme. He has no range whatsoever, attempting just 16 percent of his shots from 3-point land. Like your favorite mid-2000s superstar, Muhammad lives in the mid-range, attempting 44 percent of his shots from that area. Unfortunately for him (and now the Bucks), he’s woefully ineffective from the mid-range, hitting on just 32 percent of his attempts. These frequencies and success rates have been relatively constant throughout the entirety of Muhammad’s unspectacular NBA career.

The one area of offense (or basketball, if we’re being honest, but I’ll get to that later) in which Muhammad excels is the post-up. He’s long been relatively efficient on a decent volume of attempts, which is somewhat useful, until you realize:

1. Post-ups are horribly inefficient in the first place, so being relatively good at them is not going to be particularly helpful in the larger context of offense.
2. The value of Muhammad’s post-ups is diminished by his status as one of the league’s preeminent black holes.

Here are Muhammad’s assist percentages by year: 3.2, 8.8, 5.5, 3.5, 3.9. Percentiles for those marks among Muhammad’s positional group (as determined by Cleaning the Glass): zeroth, 37th, ninth, fifth, sixth. Muhammad is a ball-stopper of epic proportions.

More from Hoops Habit

• 7 Players the Miami Heat might replace Herro with by the trade deadline
• Meet Cooper Flagg: The best American prospect since LeBron James
• Are the Miami Heat laying the groundwork for their next super team?
• Sophomore Jump: 5 second-year NBA players bound to breakout
• NBA Trades: The Lakers bolster their frontcourt in this deal with the Pacers

Defensively, Muhammad is a train wreck. The Timberwolves’ defense has been 12 points per 10 possessions better with Muhammad off the floor than on this year. That differential ranks in the first percentile among all players. ESPN Defensive Real Plus-Minus agrees that Muhammad is one of the worst defensive players in the NBA, as Muhammad has the 477th-best DRPM this year. There are 450 roster spots in the NBA. By Defensive Box Plus Minus, he measures out as the fourth-worst defensive player in the NBA (minimum 100 minutes). Virtually every defensive metric indicates that Muhammad is a bottom-of-the-barrel defender.

The Bucks don’t need have a positional need for Muhammad, and I’d hope they don’t like his game. So, why sign Shabazz Muhammad?

I’m not yet willing to dismiss the idea that Muhammad/his agency have some seriously compromising information on someone high up in the Bucks front office or ownership. There’s also the chance that Bucks ownership wanted to burn a pile of money but didn’t have a lighter handy. Perhaps the coaching staff determined that a known malcontent was what the locker room needed to right the ship amid a three-game skid.

Next: 2017-18 Week 20 NBA Power Rankings

Farfetched? They certainly are, but they’re about as reasonable as the Bucks believing Muhammad is good at basketball. Anyway, I’m open to theories.