Will the Boston Celtics ever go back to small-ball lineups?
Brad Stevens used to go to small-ball when the Boston Celtics needed a spark. This year, Stevens has made way for different kinds of lineups.
Boston Celtics head coach Brad Stevens is known to experiment with lineups and find creative ways to win. One of his most effective strategies, going small on the court, has been used less this season compared to last year, despite a vastly upgraded guard rotation. Are the small-ball lineups a thing of the past?
Per Cleaning the Glass, lineups that feature Kyrie Irving, Marcus Smart, and Terry Rozier have a point differential of +18.3 in 318 possessions. That’s on 114 points per 100 possessions while giving up 96 points per 100. It’s a fairly limited sample size, but defensively, it ranks them in the 99th percentile of all lineups to play at least 100 possessions.
For comparison, the Celtics ran lineups featuring Smart, Isaiah Thomas and Avery Bradley for 875 possessions last season, although with much more varied results. That group only posted a +1.2 differential overall, with an offensive rating of 113 and a defensive rating of 112.
It should be noted that both of these lineups played alongside Al Horford more than any other player in both seasons, with Jae Crowder (last year) and Jayson Tatum (this year) filling in the fifth spot.
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Why has Stevens strayed away from small lineups? The Celtics have unquestionably upgraded on both sides of the ball at the guard position, and still have the right players to fill out those lineups. While Brad has experimented with Marcus Morris and Semi Ojeleye at center, his weird lineups have had less to do with going small on the perimeter and more with downsizing in the paint.
Could it be that the Celtics have a tighter guard rotation, limiting the amount of minutes they can play Irving, Smart and Rozier together? Smart is often one of the first off the bench, and Stevens likes to have Irving play off the ball from time to time before bringing in Rozier.
It could also be that smaller lineups are not tailored to defend another NBA offense, in that they won’t have the height to close out on shooters around perimeter. One of the Celtics’ best strengths is the ability to do just that, thanks to the length provided by players like Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum, not to mention the sheer strength and outstanding footwork of Semi Ojeleye.
Per synergy, the Celtics only give up 0.9 points per possession to spot-up shooters, which trails only the Toronto Raptors as the best defense of that play type.
Stevens has always preached that the Celtics need to accentuate strengths while covering up weaknesses. If their best strength is their length, then I can see how Stevens’ philosophy can lead to longer, more versatile lineups like we’ve seen.
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Small-ball is great with small-ball players, but the Celtics are no longer undersized at multiple positions, so they’ve been able to move on from it. While the rest of the league is loading up on perimeter shooters, the Boston Celtics have responded by loading up on perimeter defenders, and the results speak for themselves.