Orlando Magic: Predicting how the rest of their season will go

The Orlando Magic need the regular season to end so they can re-evaluate this summer, but it looks like there’s plenty of losing to do before then.

Now that we’re into March, the Orlando Magic can begin to see the light at the end of the very dark tunnel that has been the 2017-18 NBA season.

This was the first year in their prolonged rebuild when it felt like sustained winning was possible, as well as a push for the postseason. We know now how this dream flamed out pretty much entirely by around Christmas, just like in years gone by — an altogether depressing thought.

Even though these next six weeks are going to drag until the team is put out of its misery and can focus on the upcoming draft, there are still games to play.

There’s even a daunting west coast trip, the kind of venture no team with as little to play for as Orlando wants to undertake.

To keep things interesting, let’s take a crack at trying to guess how many games the team will win and lose for the rest of March, while comparing it to their finishes of other rebuilding years:

March 2 – Detroit Pistons (Loss)
March 3 – Memphis Grizzlies (Win)
March 5 – @ Utah Jazz (Loss)
March 7 – @ Los Angeles Lakers (Loss)
March 9 – @ Sacramento Kings (Win)
March 10 – @ Los Angeles Clippers (Loss)
March 13 – @ San Antonio Spurs (Loss)
March 14 – Milwaukee Bucks (Loss)
March 16 – Boston Celtics (Loss)
March 20 – Toronto Raptors (Win)
March 22 – Philadelphia 76ers (Loss)
March 24 – Phoenix Suns (Loss)
March 28 – Brooklyn Nets (Loss)
March 30 – Chicago Bulls (Loss)

Obviously predicting how even a single game can go is so difficult, but the beginning of the Magic’s March looks especially daunting. Of the 14 games they play, seven will come against teams above .500, and seven will come against those below .500. That doesn’t tell the whole story though.

While in theory they have a chance to pick up some wins here (which they don’t want), circumstance dictates how other teams will play.

The Detroit Pistons might have slipped to below .500, but they are still desperate to make the playoffs.

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Meanwhile, the Brooklyn Nets don’t have their own lottery pick this summer once again, and so have no incentive to lose.

You only need to look at how they played against the Cleveland Cavaliers recently to see that. Other than that, facing the Milwaukee Bucks the night after the conclusion of a five-game road trip is tough.

The Phoenix Suns come to town toward the end of the month and you know Elfrid Payton is going to will that team to a win to show them what the Magic could’ve had.

Head coach Frank Vogel will be desperate to see his team pick up one win on the road, however, and the best bet of this happening is in Sacramento against the Kings. A win at home to the Memphis Grizzlies looks entirely possible too.

There will be one weird, out of character result this month, the team always pull these out. A good place to guess where it would happen is at home to the Toronto Raptors. The Magic have played well against them the last couple of seasons, and they’ll have their eyes on loftier goals.

Really though, this generous home-stand (their longest of the season) should have been where they etched out some more wins to slip into the playoffs. Now let’s take a look at April.

Record after March: 21-54

April 1 – @ Atlanta Hawks (Win)
April 3 – @ New York Knicks (Loss)
April 4 – Dallas Mavericks (Win)
April 6 – Charlotte Hornets (Loss)
April 8 – @ Toronto Raptors (Loss)
April 9 – @ Milwaukee Bucks (Loss)
April 11 – Washington Wizards (Loss)

It’s hard to see where the wins come from in April. Kemba Walker of the Charlotte Hornets almost always plays out of his mind against the Magic, so that’s a loss.

The Raptors will be gearing up for the playoffs, as well as the Bucks and Washington Wizards. Games against the Atlanta Hawks and Dallas Mavericks could go either way, but we’ll give them to Orlando.

Record to finish the season: 23-59

What an awful way to finish what was once such a promising season. Want to know what’s even worse? Some of the wins listed above are generous towards the Magic. There’s every chance they’ll lose some of those games too.

They’ll also pick up an unlikely win or two along the way, but the point is they are more likely to lose basically every game between now and the end of the season than win it.

Again, this is great news for the tank effort. A high lottery pick is surely coming their way. Maybe this is the year they luck themselves back into first place? But if they finish the season with a record of 23-59, that will be the same as the rounded-off year two of their rebuild. It would be only three wins better than year one as well.

The best three players on that year two team from 2013-14? Nikola Vucevic, Tobias Harris and Arron Afflalo. Victor Oladipo was there too, as well as Maurice Harkless and Kyle O’Quinn. All of them got better after leaving.

That team didn’t know what it was and where it was going. Of that entire roster, only Vucevic remains and he’ll likely be gone next season too. The turnover of players in that time has been huge and for what? To arrive back to the same point as before?

Five years later, with then general manager Rob Hennigan fumbling his way from offseason to offseason, here is how they’ve managed to close each campaign from March 1 onwards:

2012-13: 4-20
2013-14: 5-17
2014-15: 6-16
2015-16: 9-15
2016-17: 7-15
2017-18 (projected): 5-16

Where is the progress there? Six years in a row, the name of game to begin March (and in truth well before then) has been to lose games.

Will a lottery pick this summer change that? Beyond restricted free agent-to-be Aaron Gordon, does the team have any other pieces that opposing teams would want to trade for?

Paying $17 million a year for Bismack Biyombo or Evan Fournier seems excessive, and it still isn’t clear what Vucevic’s worth on the market is.

Jonathon Simmons could be moved to a contender easily, and this may happen down the road as it hasn’t worked out for him in Orlando so far.

Obviously the best-case scenario here is that the incoming rookie slides in alongside Jonathan Isaac (who has struggled as well during his rookie year) and Gordon to bring the team forward.

Looking at the numbers from the past though, it’s going to take more than that to lift this team out of the position it’s in.

Next: 2017-18 Week 20 NBA Power Rankings

The Orlando Magic were as aggressive as they could be in acquiring veterans last summer to pair with their young guys, and look where it has gotten them — the same place they were in to begin with. Get ready for tons more losses, but after that, then what?