The Boston Celtics bench has found its stride once more. Are the Celtics for real, or will the first half of the season repeat itself?
The Boston Celtics bench has been on a tear coming out of the All-Star break, but haven’t we seen this movie before?
The 51 bench points per game over their last three games is remarkable given the struggles just weeks ago, except it doesn’t promise that those numbers will continue come playoff time.
When the Celtics were on their 16-game winning streak, there was a lot of cautious optimism about the new-look, Gordon Hayward-less Celtics. Did those 16 games accurately represent who these Celtics really are?
Brad Stevens’ answer to that question in February is certainly consistent with his usual thoughts:
#Celtics Brad Stevens: I've said all along that I don't think we're quite as good as our record. And I think we have to get a lot better. I still feel that way. After a tough week, sometimes it makes you take even more of a hard look at it.
— Scott Souza (@Scott_Souza) February 13, 2018
The funny thing is that Stevens said the same thing a year ago when the Celtics were still second in the Eastern Conference, although with a worse record. Of course, the personnel was different, but it shows that his mentality never changes. In fairness to Stevens, the Celtics have a way of overachieving no matter who is on the roster.
If you’re a believer in point differential as an indicator of true roster strength, you would be underwhelmed to know that their current point differential (+3.9) leaves them significantly behind the Houston Rockets (+8.8), Toronto Raptors (+8.6), and Golden State Warriors (+8.6).
Instead, it puts them on the same tier as the San Antonio Spurs (+3.2) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (+3.1), each of which are significantly behind Boston in the loss column.
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When we ask, “Are the Celtics for real?” it can be difficult to answer objectively as a fan. So instead ask yourself, “Are the Minnesota Timberwolves for real?”
What you see is absolutely real. But that’s it. The Timberwolves, like the Celtics, have an excellent starting lineup highlighted by young prospects, anchored by a seasoned All-Star. Each team’s bench is in the bottom third of the league in terms of scoring, which could be holding them back from taking the next step.
Of note, Golden State is almost dead even with Boston. Of course, the Warriors’ starters are so good that it negates the need for a stacked bench. The same can be said about Houston, who is 24th overall in bench scoring. The point differentials don’t lie.
The logical conclusion is that the Celtics are as good as any of the competition when their bench is producing, and their starters aren’t quite good enough to carry a basketball game when the bench goes cold. The current hot streak feels like a replay of the first half of the year, where the bench looked unstoppable and the Celtics were winning games easily. Will it be different this time? We can only guess.
On one hand, the Celtics have played out the toughest parts of the schedule and have survived their hardships with a 43-19 record. Best of all, there are no back-to-backs in the playoffs, not to mention two off days when traveling between cities.
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On the other hand, the playoffs eat young players for breakfast. It’s not going to be nearly as free-flowing as the last three games have been, and the span between the London game and the All-Star break shows us that the tired legs might not only be the result of a packed schedule, but instead the usual fatigue that slows down rookies.