Michael Porter Jr.’s health is the key to the 2018 NBA Draft

As someone who was once considered the biggest threat to Luka Doncic for the top pick in June’s 2018 NBA Draft, Michael Porter Jr. can still shake things up.

Heading into the college basketball season, Michael Porter Jr. was maybe the biggest name. After winning Nike’s prestigious Peach Jam, an AAU tournament, and going undefeated as a senior, Porter was already on a fast track to stardom. He also won a gold medal for the United States in Chile.

A 6’10” wing who can shoot from anywhere and create his own shot is almost unheard of. It’s reminiscent of Kevin Durant. Obviously Porter has a long way to go to even remotely be in that stratosphere. Porter is also a top-level athlete, which makes his defensive potential encouraging.

All of this was supposed to be the star of Missouri basketball and the NCAA — until Porter played just two minutes in his season opener and hasn’t played since. Porter underwent surgery in November on his back, sidelining him for 3-4 months.

Now in late February, we’re at the tail-end of that prognosis. Many speculated whether Porter would even recover in time to play at all this season. Since he’s been out, Missouri has gone 18-11 and might make the NCAA Tournament. Then this news came out last week:

Now let’s quickly get one thing out of the way: Getting cleared to play does not equate to playing time. There’s a strong argument to be made why Porter shouldn’t play at all. Coming off of a major injury, if he’s intent on entering the draft, he’ll want to keep everything under lock by his team. They would want to control the draft process and only hold individual workouts, as to help his stock.

Yet, if Porter isn’t sure about declaring or is too much of a competitor for that, then things get more interesting. So far in the college season, Marvin Bagley III, DeAndre Ayton, Trae Young, Mohamed Bamba and Jaren Jackson Jr. have cemented themselves as high draft picks. Ayton seems most likely to challenge for the top pick. The one guy with the best chance of unseating him could be the very player who’s barely seen the court.

There’s a chance that Porter comes back and plays into March. There’s a chance he has a little run in the tournament like when Kyrie Irving came back from injury in his one year at Duke. If he does and shows promise, it would likely kickstart his draft run with a ton of momentum.

Even if he doesn’t play another college minute, Porter is still the swing player in this draft. Should he come out, he doesn’t really even need a college spotlight. Porter was one of the most visible and winningest players at the high school level. He’s well known. What teams will care more about is his medical report and his health.

As scouting goes younger and younger, teams probably already have decent projections in mind with him. Risk is what will be on everyone’s minds. When you have the likes of Ayton, Young, Bagley and others, it’s a lot safer to pass on Porter. However, if Porter starts killing college games or private workouts, it’ll give teams pause.

Next: 2018 NBA Draft - The best team for each top prospect

If those medical records seem promising, we’re talking about a bona fide top-five pick. Now, teams still may decide even with a clean bill of health, they’ll take their chances on a great prospect without a history of back issues. They’d be justified in that. But going forward, how Porter and his team handle his visibility and health, in addition to how his health is perceived, could have a domino effect.