2018 NBA Draft: Trae Young is still a top-5 pick

Trae Young has fallen back down to earth over recent weeks, but that doesn’t mean he’s any less worthy of a top-five pick in June.

Trae Young has hands down been the story of the current college basketball season. That’s led to him possibly being the most scrutinized American NBA prospect. Young was untouchable with impeccable performance after impeccable performance — until lately.

Since Jan. 16, Young’s Oklahoma team is just 2-7, losers of four straight. In the four-game losing streak, Young has shot 7-for-41 from downtown. It’s been a mix of poor shooting and carelessness with the ball. Young has 66 turnovers in his last 10 games. That’s shocking, even for a player with a usage rate over 38 percent.

Some will point to the losing as a concern about Young as well. However, that would be foolish for a few reasons. First and foremost, the Big 12 is the best conference in college. Every week is a tough opponent and most are solid defensively. Young is no longer a mystery, so teams are doubling, pressuring and getting after him more than ever. In addition, Oklahoma doesn’t have the ball-handlers to pick up the slack and let him rest.

That doesn’t mean we just ultimately gloss over this stretch, but it needs context. Young is playing tougher competition than than any other top prospect in the nation. What this stretch has revealed is that Young’s decision-making and passing still need improvement. Yet for a player averaging over nine assists and assisting on 51 percent of baskets when he’s on the floor, the overall picture could be a lot worse.

Young is still an incredibly gifted passer who is likely succumbing to fatigue and a lack of help. That’s affecting him more than just becoming a worse decision-maker as the year’s gone on. The turnovers are a concern, but even the elite NBA initiators average plenty. Russell Westbrook is averaging 4.6 per game. James Harden gives away over four per game too.

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That’s why when we watch Young, we have to remember we’re watching how he may fit into the NBA, not another year of college. In the NBA, he’ll have more space and extra ball-handlers. He won’t see the 90 feet of pressure and double-teams as much as he does now.

If he falls in the right situation, he’ll have exponentially better teammates. Without as much of a burden on his back, he can put more energy into defense, something that he’s been honest about not playing his hardest to conserve energy. Young can also show how deadly he can be off the ball. That seldom comes in college since he has to have the ball for Oklahoma to function.

With all that in mind, we’re still talking about a player whose ceiling is somewhere around 75 percent of Stephen Curry. Yes, the turnovers are high. Yes, he needs to bulk up and show he can finish better at the rim. He has warts like almost every prospect ever in the NBA discussion. But this is a player still worth taking in the top five. Sure he’s not the safest pick, but were the likes of Steph Curry, Joel Embiid and many more? Assuming Young can only be the player we see at Oklahoma is to assume he can’t improve.

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One of the best things to track with prospects is gradual improvement. Following Young’s progression from a dominant AAU player to arguably the best guard in college basketball, it’s highly unlikely he doesn’t improve in some areas. At the very least, this is a kid still physically developing. That and weight training in itself will make him tougher and ultimately probably better as well. Young is still worth betting on high in this year’s loaded draft class.