The Minnesota Timberwolves need to restructure their rotation
What is clear from watching the Minnesota Timberwolves is that they could still use help at the center position. As the buyout market forms and G League players get called up, Tom Thibodeau can work on restructuring the playing time of his frontcourt to get the most of out of his lineup combinations.
The Minnesota Timberwolves lost 126-108 to the Houston Rockets on Tuesday. Houston’s 3-point barrage lead them to victory, and their frontcourt also played a big role.
The starting frontcourt duo of Clint Capela and Luc Richard Mbah Moute combined to shoot 61 percent from the field in the game, and backup power forward Ryan Anderson hit six of his 10 3-point attempts en route to 21 points off the bench.
At some point early in that game, Gorgui Dieng came in for Karl-Anthony Towns, and the lineup of he and Taj Gibson did not do very well via the eye test. Gibson can more than hold his own on defense, but teams (especially Houston) love to attack Dieng via the pick-and-roll.
He does not have the foot speed to scramble on the defensive end. Houston repeatedly went at Dieng with a double-screen play the results in a screen for the screener, usually a stretch-4 such as Anderson. These plays gave Anderson ample space to shoot. The Gibson-Dieng combo has a plus/minus rating of -1.5 on the season, making them one of the worst two-man lineups on the team.
Nemana Bjelica is a player I like so much that I called for him to start in the past. I don’t think he should start anymore, but he is still having a great season. Bjelica has the highest effective field goal percentage on the team, and he is far and away the most prolific outside shooter on the team, with 51.5 percent of his shots coming from 3-point range. He adds a necessary element to the team.
Despite the player affectionately known as “Belly” having a decent motor, you need to pair him with a quicker big who can help cover if he is beat off the dribble. Dieng is not that guy. The two-man lineup of Bjelica and Dieng has a plus/minus of -1.3 on the season.
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The two-man combinations of Bjelica or Gibson with Dieng won’t work. On offense Gibson and Dieng operate effectively from the same mid-range areas of the floor, and neither of them should be trying to stretch their shooting range at this point in their careers. While Bjelica provides the necessary floor-spacing, his defensive shortcomings give teams two bigs they can attack via the pick-and-roll when he and Dieng share the floor.
Tom Thibodeau should only bring in Dieng when Taj Gibson needs a breather. According to Basketball-Reference.com, Taj Gibson has played 95 percent of his minutes this year at PF, and five percent at SF. He should definitely be getting some minutes as a small-ball center. This is something that could be a huge addition for Minnesota come playoff time. Having Gibson at center for stretches allows you to buy time for Towns and put an extra shooter on the floor.
The Gibson-Bjelica duo has been used in just 11 games so far this season. Per NBA.com, that two-man combination has a plus/minus of +3.1. Gibson scores 1.07 points per possession out of post-ups, which in the 88th percentile.
It is obvious how the Gibson/Bjelica high-low offense is beneficial, with Belly’s knockdown shooting making it tough for teams to double Gibson when he gets a mismatch. In similar fashion, the Towns/Bjelica two-man group is effective because it combines ridiculously good floor-spacing with a big man who is just as dominant posting up as he is spotting up (Towns).
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Barring a potential Derrick Rose pickup, Tom Thibodeau is set in the backcourt with Jeff Teague, Jimmy Butler, Jamal Crawford and Tyus Jones. But in the frontcourt, he needs to experiment with every possible permutation to give Minnesota a better shot at a long postseason run.