Miami Heat: You live by the sword, you die by the sword

You can blame it on various factors, but the fact remains that the Miami Heat have a heavy reliance on 3-point shooting in their quest for success.

The bare facts facing the Miami Heat at present are not a pretty sight.

Here is where they currently rank in the league among the major statistical categories:

• Points per game: 100.4 (28th)
• Rebounds per game: 42.6 (20th)
• Assists per game: 21.9 (23rd)
• Offensive rating (points per 100 possessions): 103.0 (25th)
• 3-point percentage: 35.6 percent (21st)

Despite these lowly rankings, the Heat nonetheless have managed to compile a 29-25 record and currently find themselves placed seventh in the Eastern Conference standings.

Overall, the only area in which they have flourished has been their defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions) of 104.3, raking seventh in the league. Despite maintaining their historic excellence as a franchise on the defensive end of the floor though, the Heat have had a rather large reliance on the 3-point shot in their search for success.

Following their fourth loss in a row at the hands of the Orlando Magic, Manny Navarro of the Miami Herald offered something of a summation of the Heat’s recent play:

While it’s been quite a noticeable trend recently, as the Heat are currently mired in the midst of a slump, it’s actually been a consistent theme over the course of the season.

In games where they have nailed seven 3-pointers or less in a game, the Heat have now compiled a 1-8 record. Conversely, when they have converted on 14 or more from long range, the Heat are 8-4 on the season.

But it’s when your break down the individual performances of some of the main contributors from distance on the Heat roster that you begin to understand its importance to their success.

Wayne Ellington has been the most prolific shooter from long range this season, averaging 7.6 attempts per game while converting at a 39.0 percent clip. But as Heat play-by-play radio announcer Mike Inglis tweeted out following the loss to the Magic:

In contrast, the Heat have compiled a 20-9 record when Ellington has nailed three or more triples, and an even more impressive 15-5 record when he has converted on at least four 3-pointers.

Earlier this season, head coach Erik Spoelstra commented on the importance of Ellington’s impact from downtown:

"“The most important thing is he creates actions for us….it adds to the diversity of our offense….You have to play him all the way out to 25 feet, that helps your offense.”"

After a slow start to the season, swingman Josh Richardson‘s contributions have been vital on both ends of the floor, but in particular his ability to knock down the long range jumper. Over the course of the season, the Heat are 3-0 when Richardson has hit four or more 3-pointers. In fact, in games where Richardson has shot at a 57.0 percent clip or higher from long range, the Heat are 11-1 with Richardson averaging 18.5 points per game at a 69.6 percent clip from deep over this span.

Furthermore, and using the same formula as Richardson, combo guard Tyler Johnson‘s efficiency from 3-point range has also had a sizable impact on the fortunes of the Heat. In games where he has shot at a 57.0 percent clip or greater, the Heat are 8-2 on the season.

Having lost four consecutive games, the Heat have their work cut out for them as they prepare to play host to the Houston Rockets. Currently leading the league with 42.8 3-point attempts per game, the Rockets have taken the 3-point shot to the next level by already having nine games this season in which they attempted at least 50 3-pointers. In fact, the Boston Celtics are the only other team to have achieved, having attempted 50 in a game on one occasion.

Next: 2017-18 Week 17 NBA Power Rankings

So while the Heat are not close to being on the Rockets’ level (they are 15-0 when they convert at least 18 3-pointers,) their intentions are clear. As we have seen thus far, their proficiency from long range goes a long way to determining the outcome of each game.