Should the Golden State Warriors flip Patrick McCaw for a rental?

The Golden State Warriors are reportedly searching for ways to upgrade their bench ahead of the Feb. 8 trade deadline. But should they part with their best wing prospect in order to do so?

After a strong rookie season, impressive NBA Finals debut and dominant NBA Summer League performance, Patrick McCaw‘s value was sky high. The question was not whether or not the Golden State Warriors should keep him long-term, it was whether or not they could.

Less than four months into McCaw’s sophomore season, the narrative has changed, per ESPN‘s Zach Lowe. The Warriors need a reliable second unit creator and floor-spacer, and may have to give up McCaw to acquire one.

As a second round draft pick, McCaw is set to hit restricted free agency this summer. Many theorized that the Nick Young and Omri Casspi signings were as much about artificially keeping McCaw’s cost down by limiting his role as they were about upgrading the team for the 2017-18 season. But Young has disappointed, and Casspi has lost what was a consistent role in Steve Kerr‘s rotation early on. All the minutes McCaw could possibly ask for are there for the taking, but he has failed to take them.

It’s just about impossible to argue that adding an Avery Bradley, Tyreke Evans, Marco Belinelli or Spencer Dinwiddie would improve the Warriors’ chances of winning an NBA title. It is equally as difficult to argue that losing two cost-controlled assets — McCaw and varying forms of draft compensation, depending on the target — would hurt the Warriors long-term.

The question is, which matters more?

In almost any circumstance where championships are on the line, the present should carry more weight than the future. Passing on a difference-making player due to the moderate potential of McCaw and a pick, therefore, would generally be ill-advised.

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What complicates things here is that “difference-making” does not carry the same meaning to Golden State as it does to any other franchise. While other GMs have to decide if Evans, Bradley or any of the available wings will give them a chance to beat the Warriors, Bob Myers has to ask the opposite question: Will not getting one of these guys give his team a chance to be beaten?

After going 16-1 en route to last year’s title, the Warriors seemingly have a ton of breathing room. But they are likely to face better teams in the later stages of the playoffs than they did last spring, and that could make standing pat dicey.

McCaw is not the only wing that has regressed. Super-sub Andre Iguodala has gone from one of the most efficient offensive players in the league to among the least. After finishing in the 99th percentile in points per shot attempt (PSA) among wings last year (per Cleaning the Glass), he has plummeted to the 26th. He’s dropped from 47 percent to 30 percent on mid-rangers, and from 38 percent to 26 percent on 3s. His playmaking and defense remain pluses, but those skills are also diminishing.

Of Golden State’s eight lineups that played over 20 minutes last postseason, two stood out as the most dominant. One was the Hampton’s Five — Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant, Draymond Green and Iguodala (+32.9 net rating). The other was that same lineup, with McCaw in Iguodala’s place (+29.6 net rating).

Expand out to the lineups that played 10 minutes or more, and Iguodala or McCaw is featured in each of the top six (Iguodala in five, McCaw in two).

Again, last year’s Warriors could have survived less productivity from those two. The best players they faced in the Western Conference playoffs, besides Kawhi Leonard for half of one game, were Gordon Hayward, Rudy Gobert, Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. They have four guys better than any of those four. In situations like that, depth doesn’t matter.

This season, they may have to go through James Harden, Chris Paul, Russell Westbrook and Paul George, in addition to Lillard and McCollum, or possibly Anthony Davis or Nikola Jokic. Their four All-Stars still have the edge in any and every matchup, but the margin for error is smaller. An injury to Curry, Thompson, Durant or Green could change things in a way it would not have last year.

Evans or Dinwiddie — both reliable floor-spacers who can attack the basket and make plays — would quell that concern. So too would Bradley, who makes up for his lack of creation with terrific shooting and defense. Belinelli is more fringy, as it is unclear how much more he offers than Young.

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There is still the future side of the equation, though. If an Evans or Bradley costs the Warriors McCaw and a pick (plus Young for salary-matching purposes), Golden State will run into similar wing depth issues in the future, with fewer avenues to address them. Both Evans and Bradley will be too costly to retain this summer, and Iguodala will only get worse from here.

Dinwiddie presents a slightly more attractive option, since his contract runs through next season. The Warriors would still be down McCaw and likely a first-rounder, but two years of increased title odds makes that tradeoff more worthwhile.

The deciding factor here ultimately has to be McCaw. If the organization believes that he still projects as the heir-apparent to Iguodala, they have to hold onto him. Golden State will not be a cap space team for a minimum of three more years, and it is extremely unlikely to find another quality rotation wing in the late first or early second round again. Conversely, if there is a sense that McCaw’s game is inherently flawed, parlaying a former second round pick into one title (last year) and an increased chance at another (via trade this year) should be celebrated as an overall success.

That decision will be made internally, and it will have to be trusted until McCaw’s career unfolds a bit. The 22-year-old has the offensive numbers of a player in steep decline, dropping from the 64th to 32nd percentile in PSA and greatly increasing his turnover rate. He has an elite steal rate (2.4 percent, 96th percentile), but the on/off numbers still say that only JaVale McGee hurts the team’s defense more. The game often appears too fast for him, a concern considering I.Q. appeared to be his biggest strength last season.

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Given his age, stats and reputation, McCaw is as difficult player to assess from the outside as there is in the league. Golden State will have to make the best guess it can, and bearing in mind the present/future analysis, decide if moving on is worthwhile.