Milwaukee Bucks: The Tyler Zeller blockbuster trade

On Monday night, the Milwaukee Bucks finally made their long-awaited trade for a center. So, what are the Bucks getting from their new big man and how’d they make out in the deal?

It was barely more than a week ago that all those infamous league sources were tempering optimism, insisting that we were in for a quiet deadline. We were told that teams felt strangled by a flattening salary cap and wouldn’t be willing to take on money. We were told that teams were terrified of becoming the Brooklyn Nets, held prisoner in the future by misplaced ambition today.

Then Blake Griffin got traded.

Well, as of Monday night, we have a second league-altering trade on our hands. The Milwaukee Bucks’ desire to add a center since jettisoning Greg Monroe in the Eric Bledsoe trade has been the league’s worst-kept secret for months.

I humbly suggested a couple options last week (Dewayne Dedmon and Nerlens Noel), but the Bucks had far grander aspirations. On Monday night, they shocked the basketball world:

Okay, maybe I oversold it a bit, and maybe this wasn’t exactly what Bucks fans, eyes clouded with dreams of DeAndre Jordan, were hoping for. But this is a thing that happened. Tyler Zeller is a Buck now. So, umm, this is Tyler Zeller:

Zeller excels as a rim-runner. He runs hard, regularly creating transition opportunities.

When Zeller was on the floor, the Nets generated one percent more transition possessions than with him off. That might not sound like a massive differential, but among bigs, it’s in the 72nd percentile. On a Bucks team that thrives in transition, Zeller will fit right in.

Zeller’s a pretty good screen-setter, too. He has a good sense for when and how to get teammates open, averaging 3.9 screen assists per 36 minutes:

He’s also a half-decent passer. Zeller’s assist rate won’t cause any jaws to drop, but he’s capable of making the necessary reads:

His ability to find shooters off short rolls will be useful in Milwaukee, where he’ll serve as a necessary conduit from playmakers Eric Bledsoe, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton to off-ball shooters.

Zeller has decent touch, but he’s not an explosive finisher, so his efficiency at the rim (66 percent) leaves a bit to be desired. He has some range, certainly to long 2-point range, and possibly to the corners.

He’s shooting 38.5 percent from long range this year, but he’s attempted just 26 shots from beyond the arc. Zeller, therefore, lacks gravity. Defenses are not terrified by the proposition of him launching from the corners, regardless of his small-sample percentage:

Zeller is more of a threat than John Henson, so he’ll be a nice option with Thon Maker bordering on unplayable, but Zeller’s a far cry from the stretch-5 who (ideally) will one day suit up alongside Giannis.

Defensively, Zeller is passable. He’s typically in position and willingly contests shots, always conscious of the need to stay vertical. But he has very real physical limitations, with a modest wingspan and standing reach. Despite his best efforts, Zeller allows opponents to convert attempts at the rim at 62.5 percent, worse than noted defensive sieves Enes Kanter and Julius Randle.

As a rebounder, Zeller’s adequate, but nothing more. He corrals 14.5 percent of misses while on the floor. He’ll be a substantial improvement over Maker, but he’s still liable to get beasted on the boards at times:

I didn’t have high expectations for the Bucks’ trade deadline, but even to me this move feels underwhelming. Zeller will surely help. He’s an NBA big man, and with the way Maker’s played this year, the Bucks needed one.

But Zeller is profoundly mediocre. He does not stand out in any facet of the game. And maybe this was the best the Bucks could get. But in that case, why not just wait for buyout season?

Big men as good as Zeller will be readily available immediately after the deadline. Sacrificing a second round pick (and Rashad Vaughn) for him seems unbelievably unnecessary.

Next: 2018 NBA Draft big board: End of January

Zeller will be fine for Milwaukee down the stretch, and he’s under contract next year at a miniscule number. But this reeks of poor asset management. The Bucks (who should have a unique appreciation for the value of second round picks after drafting Malcolm Brogdon and Sterling Brown in consecutive years) gave up something when they could have given up nothing, so it’s hard to see this blockbuster move as anything but a head-scratcher.