Golden State Warriors: Is Draymond Green declining defensively?
Statistically speaking, Golden State Warriors’ forward Draymond Green is having a down year. Here, we take a look at whether that’s a sign of decline, relaxation or random fluctuation.
It is hard to pick a season that stands out as Draymond Green‘s best.
In 2015-16, the Golden State Warriors forward set career highs in scoring (14.0 points), rebounding (9.5 boards), assists (7.4 dimes), field goal percentage (49.0 percent), 3-point efficiency (38.8 percent) and free throw attempts (4.0 per game). He finished No. 2 in the league in RPM, No. 7 in MVP voting and was named to the All-NBA Second Team.
In 2016-17, Green ceded much of his usage to Kevin Durant. He also shot the ball worse from the field, and fell out of any sort of MVP consideration. However, he won Defensive Player of the Year by improbably leading Golden State to the league’s No. 2 defense (101.1 rating) despite the losses of Andrew Bogut and Festus Ezeli.
Green remains a force this season. He is still a terrific rebounder, playmaker and defender, and the figurative and literal centerpiece to Golden State’s best lineups.
He isn’t quite as good as he has been before, though.
Offensively, Green is fine. He’s shooting the ball worse than he did in 2015-16, but better than he did last year. His 7.4 assists match his career high, but with a better assist-to-turnover ratio. There has been some slight regression in his offensive rating (at 113.7 this year, after being 116.4 two years ago and 115.2 last year), but that could be statistical noise.
Defensively, the drop-off has been a little steeper. After posting a 97.5 defensive rating in 2015-16 and a 99.3 mark last year, Green is at 101.6 this season. He’s averaging the lowest steal rate of his career, and his lowest Defensive Box Plus-Minus since his rookie year. He is No. 15 in the league in Defensive RPM after finishing in the top three for three consecutive seasons.
A no-brainer All-Star in each of the last two years, Green was a questionable selection this time around. Rewarding winning and pedigree are both valid voting rationales, but the resumes of Paul George and Chris Paul were both arguably stronger.
Why the drop-off?
Green has long been discussed as an early-decline candidate. Undersized players tend to fall off faster, and Green is certainly that as a 6’7″ combo big (he might even be shorter). While he is not known for his athleticism, it is still an integral part of his game. Given how hard he works all the time, there is potential for early physical burnout.
That’s one explanation for what’s happening to Green’s defense. But it is just one version of a much more likely, more general explanation: He’s not playing as hard.
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That much is tough to debate. The numbers and the eye test support it. Green is not rotating as fast, sprinting back on defense as frequently or digging in on the ball with his trademark ferocity. His activity has dwindled. Why his activity has dwindled is the question.
The Warriors have played in three straight NBA Finals, and no one has poured as much energy into those runs as Green. His defensive regression might not be permanent decline, but rather due to temporary exhaustion. Of course, with no end to that Finals streak in sight, there might not be a huge difference between the two.
He could also be entering the LeBron James (Cavs-return version) phase of his career. James is still capable of defending at the highest level, but chooses not to during the regular season. Green already won his long-overdue DPOY last year, and does not need to play at that level to get Golden State into the playoffs.
If this is Green’s new approach, it should be sustainable for years. In fact, the easier he takes it each regular season, the longer he’ll sustain his dominance when it counts.
If exhaustion is the culprit, Green will need even more rest than Kerr has given him this year. A reduction in minutes — both in the regular season and early playoffs — might be in order as well. Rookie and Green-approximate Jordan Bell should make that more possible than in years past.
These approaches are not mutually exclusive, nor are the results. Even if permanent physical decline is at play here, more rest and relaxation will help him ramp it up when necessary.
Next: 2017-18 Week 16 NBA Power Rankings
Green may not win another DPOY award, just as James might not win another MVP. Being the best when it counts is what gets you the only trophy that matters, and it’s hard to fathom Green — or the Warriors — not doing just that.