37. Andrew Wiggins
36. Josh Richardson
Really? A former second round pick who had multiple stints in the G-League during a rookie year in which he averaged six points, two rebounds and one assist per game is a spot higher than the former No. 1 pick in the draft?
Hold your tomatoes and other rotting fruit for a hot second and hear me out.
Forget the pedigree of each player for a moment, and look at the resumes. For starters, let’s look at a straight statistical comparison. Per 36 minutes, Wiggins is averaging 17.4 points, 4.1 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.2 blocks on .442/.326/.636 shooting splits while Richardson is at 13.5 points, 3.6 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.4 steals, and 0.9 blocks with a .442/.367/.819 slash line. Wiggins leads the NBA in minutes while Richardson is currently a respectable 17th.
Those numbers are pretty even, and Wiggins’ lower shooting is counterbalanced by the fact that his usage rate is 23 compared to 17 for Richardson. It should also be noted that Wiggins is a year and a half younger. So far, the Wolves star has it by half a length.
But there’s more…a lot more…
Per 100 possessions, the Minnesota Timberwolves outscore their opponents by 6.1 points when Wiggins is on the court and get outscored by 3.2 points when he’s off. Richardson is only a +0.3 when he’s on, but the Heat crater to a team-worst -4.9 when he’s not.
We’re getting closer…
According to CleaningTheGlass.com, of the 3,357 non-garbage time possessions the Wolves have played with Wiggins on the court, all but 770 of them have come with Jimmy Butler on the floor. When Wiggins is playing without his MVP candidate running mate, Minnesota has a -14.6 net rating, which would be worst in the league by a mile. When he’s without Butler and Karl-Anthony Towns, that number drops even further to -16.7.
Let’s turn to Miami. Over a third of the Heat’s 3,154 possessions with Richardson on the court have come without either Hassan Whiteside or Goran Dragic, arguably the two best Miami players besides Richardson himself. Over those 1,112 possessions, the Heat’s net rating actually increases from a +1.6 with Dragic and Whiteside to a +3.1 without them.
Perhaps defense has something to do with the discrepancy.
Much has been made of Wiggins’, shall we say, “on and off” relationship with that end of the floor, which is so odd because he looks the part of a wing stopper. Unfortunately, actually watching him play is akin to biting into a delicious looking steak only to discover it hasn’t been seasoned.
Richardson, meanwhile, is a junior Kawhi Leonard on the defensive end. When Richardson guards opposing shooters, they shoot 6.0 percentage points worse on average.
Of the 49 forwards who have defended at least 10 shots per game this year, that number ranks second behind only Paul Milsap, and puts him ahead of notables such as Kevin Durant (fourth), Anthony Davis (fifth) and Giannis Antetokounmpo (sixth). Wiggins opponents are shooting 0.8 percent better when he guards them.
Is all of this discounting the fact that Wiggins has it in him to reach a level Richardson never can? A bit…but on a Wolves team that already has two alpha dogs, Wiggins’ inability to be an efficient complementary player lessens his value, as does the fact that he may not be very efficient in a leading man role either.
Oh, and the price tag: Richardson will make $30 million over the next three seasons combined before a player option kicks in in the summer of 2021, whereas his counterpart just signed an extension that will pay him $30 million per year.
Doesn’t seem like much of an argument at all.