2018 NBA Draft: What to make of Miles Bridges’ sophomore season

Miles Bridges shocked a lot of people by coming back to school. Now toward the end of January, how does that decision look?

Miles Bridges and Robert Williams were the two big freshmen surprises to skip out on the NBA Draft. Michigan State getting Bridges back was one of the stories of the offseason. It made Michigan State a Final Four favorite, but it also raised some questions in NBA Draft circles.

The two common questions were: Was he smart to skip an almost guaranteed lottery spot and what could he improve on? As a freshman, Bridges displayed amazing bounce, toughness and a jumper few thought he had.

Freshman vs. sophomore year

Across 28 games as a freshman, the Flint, Michigan native averaged 16.9 points, 8.3 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.5 blocks and hit 38.9 percent of his 3s. You really couldn’t have come up with a better season for Bridges. Now 19 games into his sophomore year, he’s averaging the same number of points, fewer rebounds, fewer blocks and is shooting worse from 3.

His averages right now sit at 16.9 points, 7.2 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 1.1 blocks per game on 35.5 percent from 3. Interestingly enough, his usage rate is pretty much the exact same as well. Looking at these numbers, especially if you haven’t seen him much, it’s easy to conclude he’s having a down year. Let’s take a step back first, as numbers can be deceiving, and sometimes we need to take a deeper dive than just comparing averages.

There are two ways to look at Bridges’ productivity within the vacuum of his decision to skip the NBA Draft last year. On one hand, he hasn’t really improved his draft stock that much, especially with how strong the top of the 2018 lottery is looking.

On the other hand though, Michigan State still has a good chance to win a national championship and his productivity shows he’s for real. Rather than viewing his play as stagnation, we should view it as backing up what we saw last year. We have a larger sample size. He’s proven his shot, space defense and handling all have legitimate upside. That, packaged with his athleticism, shows a player that likely won’t fall out of the lottery this year either.

Back to the numbers

So again, if we revisit his statistics with the above paragraphs in mind, we shouldn’t be that worried about him. Sure it would have been a slam dunk of conclusions if Bridges came back and put up 20-plus points, 8-plus rebounds, 3-plus assists and hit 40 percent of his 3s. However, when you combine the fact that most of his productivity has been upheld, especially his shooting, it’s encouraging.

Even going back to last season, Bridges never emerged as a superstar prospect. His best place in the league was going to be as a hybrid forward who could stretch the floor, defend multiple positions, thrive in transition and attack closeouts. By coming back to school, he’s reinforced he can be that player. In fact, Bridges might be making a case that he can be a superstar role player. The defense is a little behind, but he has the tools to make an impact there as well.

Final thoughts

Now sitting as a career 3-point shooter over 37 percent and his uptick in assists, I’m even more encouraged with Bridges. His feel for the game is steadily improving and he’s shown he can play on the wing with so many good bigs on Michigan State. After last year playing mostly the 4, it’s refreshing to see him slide over to the 3 and succeed.

Next: 2018 NBA Mock Draft: End of 2017 edition

So when it comes to looking at his decision to come back to school, perhaps some are disappointed because they wanted to see a star prospect emerge. Yet we’re still likely looking at a lottery pick with a long career ahead of him. Maybe this year back at Michigan State will better serve getting him ready to adapt quicker to the NBA, and he still has a shot at a national championship. Bridges surely does not regret his decision.