The Indiana Pacers have now won three straight without starting center Myles Turner, but talk of the team being better without him simply isn’t true.
Here are two current facts about the Indiana Pacers: The team has been without center Myles Turner for the past four games, and he is going to miss at least three more as the result of a right elbow injury. The other fact? The team is on a three-game winning streak.
Some fans have been voicing their displeasure with the third-year big man, disappointed that he hasn’t taken full advantage of his more prominent role this season.
Some think backup power forward/center Domantas Sabonis should be starting ahead of Turner, while others are calling for Turner to be traded under the assumption that Indiana is a better team without him.
It’s true that the Pacers are 17-16 with Myles Turner and 7-4 without him in 2017-18, but that is a small sample size and the validity of those numbers depends greatly on the quality of opposition while Turner has been inactive, so that doesn’t give us an accurate assessment of his value to the team.
First, let’s take a look at some statistics that will give us a better understanding of Myles Turner’s impact on the Indiana Pacers; we’ll begin by looking at the traditional numbers.
When comparing the team’s performance with and without Turner, the Pacers are better in virtually every traditional statistical category when he is on the floor.
Pacers fans in November: Man, can we trade Myles Turner?
— Jon R. LaFollette (@JonLawFilet) January 13, 2018
Pacers fans in January: Man, we miss Myles Turner.
The worst fan base is all of them.
These per game averages include field goal percentage (+1.2), 3-point percentage (+2.7), rebounds (+1.0), assists (+2.8), steals (+0.6) and blocked shots (+1.7). Turner’s net rating is also on the positive side at +0.7.
We see a similar pattern when examining the advanced stats — Turner’s positive impact shows itself in a myriad of advanced statistical categories, including team offensive rating (+0.9) and team defensive rating (+0.8).
The advanced numbers in terms of assists, turnovers and shooting are all better when Myles Turner is on the court as well. The only area in which the team performs better without him is in rebounding percentage (-7.3 offensive, -0.7 defensive and -2.9 overall).
Clearly, Myles Turner contributes a great deal to his team, with the exception of his subpar production on the boards. Given this hypothesis, what have the Pacers done to produce a winning streak in Turner’s absence?
The club’s numbers are up in a few different areas during the winning streak, but by far the most significant of those has been its red-hot shooting. Over the past three games, the Pacers are shooting 51.2 percent from the field, 50 percent from 3-point range and 85.4 percent from the foul line.
Indiana’s offensive rating has climbed to 116.4 during the winning streak (the team’s season mark is 108.6) and its defensive rating has also improved greatly, going from a season average of 106.6 to a mark of 100.9 over the last three contests.
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It should also be mentioned that several individuals have stepped up during Turner’s absence, including Darren Collison (15.7 points per game on 66.7 percent shooting) and Domantas Sabonis (12.3 rebounds per contest).
Veteran center Al Jefferson, who has entered the rotation due to Turner’s injury, has contributed nicely during the streak with 8.0 points and 7.0 rebounds per night on 54.5 percent accuracy from the field.
The Pacers have collectively done a great job so far of making up for the loss of Myles Turner, but there could be trouble ahead. For one thing, the team will not be able to keep up this shooting pace for much longer.
In addition, the season-long statistics show that Turner is a plus player for Indiana in almost every area outside of rebounding. If Myles Turner ends up being out for an extended period of time, it will become more and more difficult for the club to maintain this level of play.
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The Pacers are fortunate to have a player the caliber of Domantas Sabonis to start in Turner’s place, but the sooner the 6’11” center from Texas returns, the better off the Indiana Pacers will be.