2018 NBA Draft: Is Trevon Duval worth a first round pick?

As Trae Young and Collin Sexton establish themselves as the top lead guards in the 2018 NBA Draft, where does that leave Duke’s Trevon Duval?

After 2017’s stellar rookie point guard class, the NBA couldn’t expect the same in 2018. Going into the year, the top dogs were Alabama’s Collin Sexton and Duke’s Trevon Duval. Sexton remains in the lottery conversation. For Duval, though, it’s getting harder and harder to justify taking him early in this June’s draft.

Where Trae Young has ballooned into the top-10 conversation, Duval has slid in the opposite direction. After an amazing start to the year where he rarely turned the ball over, Duke’s point guard has come back down to Earth.

On the year, Duval is averaging 12.5 points, 6.3 assists and 2.1 rebounds per game. Those assist numbers and his 31.7 assist percentage are great, but they don’t compensate for his inability to run Duke’s offense and stop turning the ball over. It’s troubling how poorly he rebounds the ball, even when you factor in Marvin Bagley III and Wendell Carter eating on the glass.

Going back to his assist numbers, for reference, Sexton is assisting on over 25 percent of his team’s possessions and he hasn’t looked the part of a pure floor general either. So take that assist percentage for Duval with a grain of salt. He shows great instincts and vision at times, but has truly not put together any type of consistency.

The bigger problem with Duval is he’s almost a non-threat in the half court, both as a shooter and scorer. In 18 college games, he’s hit just 26 percent of his 3s and 61 percent of his free throws. Often he won’t even attempt a jumper at all. Look around the NBA and it’s hard to find a non-shooting point guard.

Guys like Rajon Rondo and Elfrid Payton come to mind. However, both guys were once elite defensive prospects and Rondo is an elite passer. Duval has defensive tools, but they mostly lie in potential due to his strength and long arms. He still has plenty of room to grow on that end and is just simply in a lower tier defensively. Duval looks lost too often on defense. So even with his potential, it’s hard to justify any defensive specialist type role with him.

More from Hoops Habit

• 7 Players the Miami Heat might replace Herro with by the trade deadline
• Meet Cooper Flagg: The best American prospect since LeBron James
• Are the Miami Heat laying the groundwork for their next super team?
• Sophomore Jump: 5 second-year NBA players bound to breakout
• NBA Trades: The Lakers bolster their frontcourt in this deal with the Pacers

So this begs a very important question. If Duval is not an elite decision-maker and offers next to no shooting, where does that leave his draft stock? Should he even be a first round pick in the 2018 NBA Draft?

With his physical tools, speed and passing, there’s still a lot to like. That’s especially true for a kid who is just 19 years old. Duval is not doomed by his weaknesses right now. We’ve seen players transform over time with a lot less talent than Duke’s talented freshman.

With that being said, it’s already difficult to justify selecting Duval in the top-20 or so. With so many red flags, it’s not really a stretch to say he’s a borderline first-rounder as of mid-January. Naturally what this comes down to is how teams value late first round picks.

If a team sees a high floor as a backup point guard and they’re okay with that outcome, then sure. roll the dice. Give the kid a few years and hope that the instincts he flashes throughout games are legitimate and that he can become more consistent. Hope his athleticism can shine once he devotes himself to basketball year-round.

Next: 2018 NBA Mock Draft: End of 2017 edition

But for teams hoping to turn Duval into a starter or to contribute right away, there just may be safer bets and better prospects in that 20-30 range. Duval might be the riskiest prospect to bet on in the entire 2018 class.