Cleveland Cavaliers: What to expect when Isaiah Thomas debuts

Isaiah Thomas is almost healthy enough to make his Cleveland Cavaliers debut. But what can we expect when he hits the court?

The turn of the new year isn’t just symbolic to us humble humans who aren’t 6’10” and can jump 40 inches. NBA teams also refocus on their postseason aspirations as they begin the stretch run.

This opportunity for reflection and change couldn’t have come at a better time for the Cleveland Cavaliers. They’ve squandered three straight games, including an ugly performance against the spiraling Utah Jazz Saturday night.

Thankfully, help is on the way. The team’s prized off season addition, Isaiah Thomas, will return soon. Word is the former MVP candidate could return Jan. 3 for a bout against the Boston Celtics.

Thomas’ likely debut against the team that let the door hit him on the way out would be entertaining, but his return is even more valuable for the Cavs’ upcoming stretch, which features games against the Minnesota Timberwolves and Golden State Warriors.

But what version of Thomas will we see? Ideally, it’s All-Star Thomas, the one who bobbed and weaved off picks like Reggie Miller to earn open looks. It was the Thomas who mastered the Brad Stevens system, utilizing bulky teammates to find open spaces.

Here’s an example of Thomas navigating between screens to earn an easy look at the rim.

This was also the Thomas who mastered fourth quarters, regularly willing Boston to victories despite whimsical performances from teammates. It was the Thomas who overcame tragedy and injury to push Boston through the playoffs.

But that was before hip surgery, before the rehab and before joining Tyronn Lue’s system. Now, Thomas is second, maybe third fiddle to the Cavs’ established stars.

So maybe we’ll see role player Thomas, the one that specializes in spot-up 3s and late-shot clock jumpers. This Thomas spent time between Boston and Phoenix in 2014-15, combining to average 16.4 points per game while shooting 42.0 percent from the field. He also only shot the ball 11.9 times per game, hitting just 1.9 3s.

That is role-player Thomas. All-star Thomas shot the ball 46.3 percent from the field last year, drilling 3.2 3s per game while averaging 28.9 points a contest. All-Star Thomas also averaged nearly two assists more per game than role player Thomas, and was incredibly efficient.

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Cavaliers fans are kidding themselves if they expect All-Star Thomas in his first game back. But by the same token, we’re unlikely to see the same Thomas that shuffled from team-to-team in his early career.

The Thomas we’ll probably see is somewhere in between. For example, he hit 47.0 percent of his corner 3s in 2015-16, and 42.9 percent of those same shots last year, compared to just 39.0 percent the year before. So All-Star Thomas made teams pay when left open.

Teammates of LeBron James thrive on corner triples. Because James draws attention, the shot is often available. For example, more than 30 percent of Kevin Love’s 3s during his time in Cleveland have been from the corner. Less than 10 percent of his long balls in Minnesota were from that spot.

So expect All-Star Thomas to see plenty of corner 3s, living off the long range ball, punishing teams that help on James.

But expect to see role-player Thomas in terms of aggression. Last season, 33.1 percent of Thomas’s field goals were within three feet, essentially layups. A dazzling finisher, he made nearly 60 percent of those shots and was often bodying up against bigger players.

But in 2014-15, only 25.3 percent of his field goals were from close range. Role player Thomas sometimes struggled to beat defenders, shooting more challenging mid-range and deep shots.

Fresh off hip surgery, we’ll probably see that form of Thomas — one who struggles to get to the paint, relying more from distance.

If/when Thomas takes the floor at the TD Garden, he’ll be a useful as dead-eye shooter, an immediate 3-point threat and offensive upgrade. But a slashing driver he will not be, resorting to passivity on offense.

Let’s say Thomas maintains his shooting efficiency from last year, drilling about 38 percent of his 3s. He’ll probably knock down three a game, and let’s say averages about four 2-pointers per game and six free throws, totals comparable to his 2014-15 season. That averages out to about 23 points per game on, say, 17 shots like he did during his role-playing days.

More importantly, he’ll take shots away from Jose Calderon, Jae Crowder and Dwyane Wade, who have a combined efficiency field goal percentage of 50.0 this year. Let’s say Thomas shoots an eFG percentage in between last year’s total of 54.6 and is 2014-15 total of 50.1. That’s still an average of 52.3 percent, an improvement from his counterparts. That equals at least a couple more points per game for a Cavs team that’s lost three games this year by four points or less.

So can we expect All-Star Thomas? Probably not. But we can expect an efficient outside shooter that regularly scores 20-plus points a game and is significant offensive upgrade.

Next: 2018 NBA Mock Draft: End of 2017 edition

That’s a much-needed addition to a Cavs team suffering through a mini-spiral.