Denver Nuggets: Trey Lyles is coming into his own

Donovan Mitchell might be the headliner of the draft night trade, but Trey Lyles is coming into his own for the Denver Nuggets.

On the night of the 2017 NBA Draft, the Denver Nuggets sent the 13th overall pick to the Utah Jazz in exchange for the 24th overall pick and Trey Lyles. The Nuggets were hoping to select Indiana star OG Anunoby with the 24th pick, per ESPN‘s Zach Lowe, but the Toronto Raptors snatched him just one pick before Denver’s selection.

While the move has been widely panned due to Mitchell’s breakout rookie year and 24th overall pick Tyler Lydon‘s lack of playing time, the move was not simply a pick swap. Trey Lyles, a former late lottery pick himself, was almost a throw-in to the trade. However, he already appears primed to be a more useful piece than Denver’s 2017 draft choice.

The Paul Millsap injury left some room for a silver lining to the dark cloud of losing out on Mitchell. Trey Lyles spent most of the first month of the season tethered to the bench. However, he has finally gotten a chance to prove his worth with the four-time All-Star on the sidelines.

The Nuggets are already dealing with a sizable logjam in their frontcourt with quite a few combo big men. However, Lyles’ skill-set arguably fits better with superstar Nikola Jokic than anyone outside of Millsap. His recent strong play may be enough for him to hold onto his place in the rotation even after Millsap returns to the lineup.

Early season limitations

Despite playing small forward for most of his season at Kentucky, Trey Lyles was destined to be an NBA stretch-4. Lyles showed a very developed offensive game in college despite some defensive issues. Although he struggled with some small forward responsibilities in college, his ball-handling and offensive IQ were difficult to question.

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Lyles knocked down 38.3 percent of his triples as an NBA rookie, but noticeably regressed as a sophomore. Without the same consistent minutes from his rookie year, Lyles lost confidence in his shot. He shot 36.2 percent from the floor and 31.9 percent from deep as a sophomore before Utah shipped him to the Denver Nuggets.

Lyles spent a lot of time on the bench to start his Denver career. He played just 12 minutes in four October games, including three DNPs. He followed that up with just 12.5 minutes per game in November. Despite his lack of playing time, Lyles was efficient in his limited early minutes, posting a True Shooting Percentage of 58.7 before December. However, his path to a larger role appeared cloudy until Paul Millsap’s injury.

December breakout

Losing Paul Millsap clearly hurt the Denver Nuggets. However, every cloud has its silver lining. In Denver’s case, Trey Lyles has been that silver lining since Millsap went down. Lyles played four minutes on Nov. 17. He then played 16 minutes on Nov. 19 after Millsap went down early in the game.

Since Nov. 20, Lyles has taken full advantage of the opportunity given to him by Millsap’s injury. He’s averaging 12.7 points and 5.9 rebounds per game since then, with 52.4 percent shooting from the floor and 47.3 percent shooting from beyond the arc.

Those numbers have gone up in December. Lyles is averaging 14.6 points and 6.5 rebounds per game since Dec. 1 and is shooting 54.3 percent from the floor and 49.2 percent from deep. His touch from deep has added a new dimension to the Nuggets’ offense:

This type of staggered screen action is typically run for guards, but Lyles is a good enough shooter from deep that he can score on these kinds of actions. While he can spot up effectively like most stretch-4s, Lyles’ offensive capabilities extend far beyond that usual skill-set.

Future outlook

Trey Lyles will hopefully continue to get significant minutes for the Denver Nuggets when Paul Millsap returns given his excellent play since Nov. 20. However, the same issue that plagued Lyles before Millsap’s injury still remains — the Nuggets simply have too many power forwards.

Lyles is playing more time at center this year than ever before, playing 33 percent of the time he has been on the floor at that position, per Basketball-Reference. Still, he will not be a center long-term. Lyles simply does not have the skills to lock down the middle on the defensive end.

Next: 2018 NBA Mock Draft: End of 2017 edition

Trey Lyles displaced the rest of Denver’s power forwards through his strong play since Paul Millsap’s injury. Lyles might be in danger of losing most of those minutes once Millsap returns. However, his shooting alone should earn him a place in Denver’s plans going forward.