Will Stephen Curry or Isaiah Thomas have bigger impact on Warriors-Cavs upon return?

The shorthanded Golden State Warriors beat the shorthanded Cleveland Cavaliers 99-92 on Christmas Day. Which team needs more desperately to get healthy for their MLK Day rematch and beyond?

In accordance with their bi-annual pagan tradition, the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers faced off around solstice time. The trend established over the last two years remained true, as the summer champion reigned supreme the following winter.

Of the three Dec. 25 clashes that have taken place, the most recent was the least representative of a Finals rematch. Sure, Kevin Durant changed the tenor of last year’s showdown too, but it still ended in a familiar way. Kyrie Irving hit the decisive shot, and the Cavs escaped victorious.

Not only is Irving now gone, but both his replacement and main adversary are currently injured. The matchup was still as thrilling as ever, with LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson and Kevin Love providing abundant star power. The sizzle of two teams who hate each other deeply, and who all but know they will face off again this June (whether they have an eighth-straight solstice meeting in Dec. 2018 will depend on if James is still in Cleveland, but that’s a different discussion), was still present.

As exciting as the game was, however, it was not all that instructive. Stephen Curry is the Warriors’ most important player, and Isaiah Thomas represents Cleveland’s only shot at another Finals upset. Without either active, neither team resembled what it will be should they meet in six months.

The question is, which team will gain more from the return of its point guard?

Point guard roles up to now

Before getting into what Thomas will bring to this rivalry, we need to look at what Irving brought.

Irving has a reputation as an elite isolation scorer, while Curry is thought of as a better off-the-ball threat. Both are true, but are also distortions. Curry is in fact the better isolation scorer of the two, while Irving gets more of his shot attempts off assists than Curry.

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James is the engine in Cleveland. As arguably the greatest draw-and-kick player in NBA history (I’m not actually sure if this is arguable), he was able to generate consistent open jumpers and mismatches for Irving. While Kyrie’s isolation brilliance is remembered by highlight reels, his terrific 2016 Finals numbers were built on a foundation of clean looks.

Curry is more James than Irving. The Warriors offense is built off of his ability to draw defensive attention and create advantages elsewhere. He does not, however, have James’ all-time ability to pass out of double teams, and in 2015 and 2016, he did not have a teammate that could take full advantage of the chaos he created.

Durant changed that, becoming the Irving to Curry’s James. He won Finals MVP in 2017, as would have Irving the previous year if not for LeBron. The reason James won in 2016, of course, is what he brings in every facet of the game. Durant may be the Irving of Golden State’s offense, but he is the James of its defense and rebounding. Or at least, one of its two LeBrons, with the other being Green.

The Warriors’ embarrassment of talent aside, here’s the point: James and Irving were the Cavs’ “co-stars,” but James carried about 90 percent of the load. With Curry and Durant, it is closer to 50-50.

That appears to mean that Curry’s presence matters more than Thomas’, but there are two other factors to consider.

Thomas and Irving not the same player

I’ll get this out of the way: Thomas’ hip injury matters. There is a very real chance he is not the same guy he was last year. We will not know until he comes back, and maybe not until weeks or months after that. If his skills are diminished, this is no discussion. The Cavs will struggle to make the Finals with the shell of Thomas, let alone win a title.

Given that, we will proceed assuming Thomas is the same guy, or at least something close to it.

Shot for shot, Thomas has always been a more efficient scorer than Irving. Even if you take away his 62.5 true shooting percentage in 2016-17 (obliterating either player’s previous career high), Thomas’ career mark of 57.2 still edges Irving’s of 56.1.

There were three reasons that margin went from minor to significant last year. First, Thomas shrunk the gap in mid-range shooting, the one area that Irving was better. He finished in the 90th percentile on mid-rangers, per Cleaning the Glass, after living in the 30th most of his career (Irving stays in the 70th-90th realm).

Second, he expanded his advantage as a foul drawer. He’s gotten to the line more in each of the last four seasons than Irving ever has, but last year, he went crazy. His 7.8 made free throws per game nearly doubled Irving’s career high of 4.2.

Finally, while both he and Irving took more 3s than ever, Thomas went to a different level. He jumped to 8.5 attempts per game (2.8 more than his previous high), while Irving rose to 6.1 (just 1.1 more than his high).

Of course, each player’s circumstances were wildly different than those of the other. Thomas was given the keys to Brad Steven’s imaginative offense, while Irving was asked to be a play finisher, second option and second-unit orchestrator in Tyronn Lue‘s…offense. We do not yet know empirically if Thomas can be in Cleveland what he was last year in Boston.

We can make some conjecture, however, based on what Irving has—or has not—been in Boston.

The Celtics are thriving. As such, Irving has been thrown around as a lose MVP candidate much like Thomas was last year. But Boston’s 2017-18 success has been based on defense. Its offensive rating is down from 108.6 to 105.6, and Irving is a major reason why. He is still the same guy he was in Cleveland; he does not get to the line, and takes more mid-rangers than layups or 3s.

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The logical conclusion here is that if Irving is still Irving in Boston, Thomas will still be Thomas in Cleveland. If he is, that will push the Cavs’ offense to a never-before-seen level.

Irving was a monster playing off of James. Imagine if he played like Thomas by cutting harder, taking more spot-up 3s, driving the ball deeper and pressing the initial advantage that James created.

Irving was also relatively pedestrian playing without James. We saw what Thomas did surrounded by decent shooters and a skilled pick-and-pop big last year; imagine him leading Cavs second units alongside Love.

It is that last point that matters most with regards to the Warriors. After all, with James on the court, the Cavs were only outscored by seven points in last year’s Finals. They were outscored 75-46 in the 28 minutes he rested, and 48-22 in the 16 of those minutes that featured Irving.

As long as either Curry or Durant is in the game, any James-less lineup will be disadvantaged. Thomas will not be able to change that, but he can shrink the gap by orchestrating a more efficient offense. If he can do so well enough to allow more rest time for James, the difference between he and Irving will be even greater.

Again, this is assuming the Cavs get 2016-17 Thomas, and they very well may not. Considering the margin they need to make up to compete with Golden State though, a 30 percent chance at having last year’s Thomas is better than a 100 percent chance at having last year’s Irving.

Underdogs cannot trade pieces

Imagine you’re playing chess, and have only your king and one bishop remaining. Your opponent has their king, one bishop and their queen. You have the option to take their bishop, but only at the expense of your own. Given your opponent’s queen, this is obviously not worth it—even if it’s technically an even trade.

Of course, the analogy is not perfect. Even if Thomas is better than Irving, he is no Curry. You would not trade your bishop for your opponent’s bishop, but you would consider trading it for their queen. You would think even harder if your King could do things that other kings can’t, i.e. James’ advantage over Durant.

Ultimately, though, we have seen that play out before. It was the 2015 Finals, and the Warriors won in a convincing six games. They are simply too talented, smart, experienced and well-coached to lose to a one-man show. Replace Curry with Durant on that 2015 team, and the talent disparity is still too much for Cleveland to overcome.

Curry is better than Thomas. He is a bigger part of his team’s identity. There is a massive possibility that the return of both point guards tilts the Jan. 15 rematch—and a potential Finals four-peat—even more in Golden State’s favor.

Next: 2018 NBA Mock Draft: End of 2017 edition

Yet Thomas will have a bigger impact than Curry, simply because he gives his team a shot. It is a low-percentage shot, but those have won games for the Cavs in this rivalry before.