Nikola Jokic: The power forward experiment

Since returning from injury, Nikola Jokic has been playing power forward…and thriving. Unfortunately, that success is unlikely to last.

Blake Griffin, Draymond Green, Paul Millsap. This is the modern 4. Offensively, he can stretch the floor and facilitate. Defensively, he’s athletic and agile, capable of gliding with grace on the perimeter and protecting the rim like big men of the past.

Offensively, that sounds like a scouting report of Nikola Jokic. Defensively, not so much. Alas, since Jokic returned from a recent ankle injury, power forward has been his position.

Given how ill-suited Jokic is to survive defensively as a power forward, it would seem safe to assume that the starting front court of Jokic and Mason Plumlee has struggled. However, the Denver Nuggets have been absolutely fantastic with Jokic at power forward, outscoring opponents by 9.5 points per 100 possessions.

A bit surprising, perhaps, but Jokic is a supremely talented offensive player. I guess it wouldn’t be all that shocking that the Nuggets have been able to maintain an elite offense with Jokic on the floor—regardless of position—and survived on defense.

But that hasn’t been the case. The Nuggets have been good offensively; they’ve been great defensively, allowing just 102.3 points per 100 possessions. And honestly, I don’t understand how.

With Jokic guarding power forwards and Plumlee centers, Jokic is routinely getting roasted on the perimeter:

For all his virtues and all his faults, he is still the same Nikola Jokic we have come to know and love; he’s not suddenly the versatile defensive wrecking ball that is Green or Millsap.

It makes no sense that the Nuggets have dominated defensively with Jokic at the 4, especially given his history there. Last year, the Nuggets were terrible defensively with Jokic playing alongside another center, allowing 109.4 points per 100 possessions (in a sample of possessions 2.5 times larger than this year’s).

Defensively, the Nuggets should not — cannot — be this good with Jokic at power forward. Regression must be coming.

That is, unless the Nuggets start to play Jokic only half at power forward.

In their recent, resounding victory over the Golden State Warriors, the Nuggets tried something different. Offensively, Jokic was still a power forward, but defensively, he was not. Jokic stayed on Warriors center Jordan Bell — under the basket — seemingly unable to resist the magnetic pull of the rim, while Plumlee did his best to hang with Green on the perimeter:

Maybe this was just an adjustment to a Golden State frontcourt that featured two largely like-skilled and like-sized big men, or maybe it was a recognition of a necessity for change.

Plumlee is not exactly the modern 4 on defense either, but he’s fairly athletic and certainly more fleet of foot than Jokic. He might give the Nuggets a chance at getting by defensively going forward.

Next: 2018 NBA Mock Draft: End of 2017 edition

But if the adjustment was merely a one-game aberration, the Nuggets are in for a reckoning. As history shows, Jokic at the 4 — fully at the 4 — is not a viable option.