The Milwaukee Bucks continue to lose games they should win against the league’s worst teams. How are these losses hurting their long-term goals?
The Milwaukee Bucks have something most of their peers do not: a truly transcendent superstar, an MVP-caliber player turning in an MVP-caliber season. While the top of the Eastern Conference hierarchy is set, there is an opportunity for a team to step up to the top of the next tier.
On Christmas Day, Indiana had fought its way into fourth in the East, but was tied in the loss column with Milwaukee. A Bucks win on Dec. 26 would have vaulted Milwaukee up the standings, but instead the team lost 115-106 to the Chicago Bulls.
This is the story of Milwaukee’s season — an opportunity squandered because of a loss to a bad team. These bad losses are rendered all-the-more painful when viewed in light of the major wins this team has pulled off, including a victory a week ago against the Cleveland Cavaliers. This team can hang with the conference’s best, but it continues to lose to its worst as well.
Against the 10 teams with the worst records in the NBA, the Bucks have lost five times, with just nine wins — hardly a contender’s spread. By way of contrast, the Boston Celtics are 12-1 against such teams; the Toronto Raptors are likewise 12-1. Cleveland is 12-3 despite its early season struggles.
The league’s best teams, its contenders, those teams with a shot at a title if everything breaks right — those teams mop the floor with the league’s worst. Perhaps a game stays close because of apathy toward a lesser team, but they almost always finish things up and avoid the loss. The Bucks have yet to show that level of excellence.
Milwaukee is just 2-5 over its last seven games, with four losses to teams unlikely to make the postseason. This includes a pair of home losses to the Chicago Bulls, a team that spent the first two months of the season writing the definition for a terrible team.
After back-to-back losses against cellar teams, the Bucks are 17-15, barely above .500 and ranked seventh in the Eastern Conference standings. Their point differential of -0.7 is alarming, showing a team with serious issues that are being papered over in an attempt to stay relevant.
Behind the Buck Pass
Milwaukee has shown flashes of excellence, most recently a victory over LeBron James and the Cavaliers. Despite their stumbling against the league’s worst, the Bucks are still trending positively. They are 13-9 since trading for Eric Bledsoe, with a break-even point differential — in other words, they are better since the trade, but only marginally.
All of the pieces are in place for this team to be better. Giannis Antetokounmpo is having a breakout season one year after having a breakout season. He is averaging 29.5 points, 10.4 rebounds and 4.6 assists per game over the first two months.
If those numbers hold, he would be just the seventh player to hit those thresholds, joining Russell Westbrook‘s MVP season from 2016-17 and five all-time greats: Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Wilt Chamberlain, David Robinson, Oscar Robertson and Elgin Baylor.
He has two high-level fellow stars in Khris Middleton and Eric Bledsoe. Middleton is chipping in 20.7 points per game as Antetokounmpo’s wingman, pacing the Bucks with 2.1 3-pointers per game. Bledsoe has put up 20 or more points nine times since joining Milwaukee, and scored in single digits just once.
The supporting cast looks to be there as well. Malcolm Brogdon is the reigning Rookie of the Year. Thon Maker continues to be discussed as a player with elite potential. John Henson shows up in four of Milwaukee’s five most-used lineups, all staunchly positive groups.
Yet this team can’t close the gap with the teams above them. They have instead stumbled when they needed to shine and squandered opportunities to put themselves in prime playoff positioning. Home-court advantage is always desirable in the playoffs, but especially so for a team with drastic splits like the Bucks, who are 11-6 at home but just 6-9 on the road.
There is time for the Bucks to take that step forward, to eliminate the ugly losses and take care of business when facing the league’s dregs. Depth pieces for the team have missed time due to injury, and forward Jabari Parker has missed the entire season to date, but should return around the All-Star Break.
With 11 of their next 12 games against teams currently in the playoffs, Milwaukee could see itself dropping further down the standings. Soft stretches against the league’s cellar-dwellers are supposed to buoy a team’s record, balancing out the stretches against tougher competition. Milwaukee squandered the easy stretches, and now must hold strong against stiffer competition.
In the end, Milwaukee’s season will be determined by how it performs in the playoffs. Does this team take a step forward and win a series? Or will it simply hold serve from last year, pushing a superior team but unable to close things out?
Next: 2018 NBA Mock Draft: End of 2017 edition
Their postseason success will be based on their success during the regular season, and whether they can claim home-court in the East by finishing with a top-four record. The easiest way to rack up wins is against the league’s worst teams. Milwaukee needs to figure out a way to win the easy games, in order to set itself up for success when the games are most difficult.