The Milwaukee Bucks are handing out more gifts than anyone
By Max Carlin
The Milwaukee Bucks have been in the giving spirit all year, sending opponents to the charity stripe more than anyone else, which has been disastrous for their defensive efficiency.
For all of Jason Kidd’s foibles, he cannot be criticized on account of passivity. Kidd’s tenure as head coach of the Milwaukee Bucks has been tumultuous and heavily scrutinized, but his aggression and his dedication to action have been unwavering.
Sometimes Kidd’s irrepressible need to do something, anything, manifests itself less-than-ideally for the Bucks. In their Dec. 19 victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers, for example, Kidd could not resist intervening—being aggressive—where it wasn’t needed, instructing Khris Middleton to intentionally miss the second of two free throws, which would have put the Bucks up four with just 1.4 seconds remaining in the game. The Bucks prevailed anyway, but Kidd did his damnedest to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Kidd’s devotion to aggression shines through most notably in his defensive scheme. While the Bucks have moved away from it more recently, their blitz-heavy coverage of pick-and-rolls has drawn the ire of many, as it puts unnecessary strain on the defense.
The consistent aggression of Kidd’s Bucks has, at times, also manifested itself positively. During his tenure, the Bucks’ defense has ranked first, seventh, fifth and fourth in turnover percentage. The Bucks’ ability to consistently get out in transition, ranking sixth, 11th, 15th and third in transition frequency, is a byproduct of that aggression.
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Overwhelmingly, though, Kidd’s aggression has been a distinct negative. Just as the Bucks have consistently forced turnovers during the Kidd era, stealing possessions like the Grinch on Christmas, they’ve gifted points to opponents like a mall Santa who’s bankrolled by Bill Gates.
Over the last four years, the Bucks have ranked 25th, 24th, 18th and 30th in opponent free throw rate. This year’s league-worst rate translates to 26.5 opponent free throw attempts per 100 possessions, 5.1 per 100 possessions more than the 15th-ranked Orlando Magic.
Converted at a league average rate of 76.5 percent, those 5.1 free throws per 100 possessions would translate to 3.9 points. The Bucks, per 100 possessions, allow 108.3 points, tied for fourth-most. If they had a middle-of-the-pack opponent free throw rate and allowed 3.9 fewer points per 100 possessions, they’d allow just 104.4 points per 100, which would rank 12th.
Fixing the Bucks’ defense is, of course, not as simple as my back-of-the-envelope calculation purports, but some quick math does show just how destructive something as seemingly insignificant as free throw shooting can be.
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Throughout the gameplan, the Milwaukee Bucks’ aggression could clearly use some scaling back, because even during the holiday season, they simply can’t afford to keep gifting the opposition points at this rate.