Have Lakers revealed new blueprint to defending Golden State Warriors?
On Dec. 22, the Golden State Warriors beat the Los Angeles Lakers for the third time this season. All three games have been tightly contested, however, and the reasons why go beyond random chance.
Through three matchups with the Los Angeles Lakers, the Golden State Warriors are 3-0. They are also scoring 106.1 points per 100 possessions. Only five other teams—the Celtics, Pistons, Grizzlies, Thunder and Hornets—have defended the Warriors better.
Boston, Detroit and Memphis have always defended the Warriors well, though. The Thunder are as defensively talented as any team in the league, and the Hornets are not far behind. Stephen Curry has always given them nightmares, but they caught Golden State the day after the Charlotte native was diagnosed with a sprained ankle.
The Lakers have played the Warriors a more statistically-representative three times. Curry missed two of the contests, but the one he played in was no different than the others. Golden State struggled to score against Luke Walton‘s scheme, gutting out a win in the final minutes.
That late November game went to overtime, as did the teams’ Dec. 18 matchup. Their Dec. 22 showdown—the first in Oracle—did not require an extra period, but did require a late push after L.A. erased a 23-point deficit and took the lead midway through the fourth.
Walton has the Lakers defending surprisingly well this season. They are allowing just 103.5 points per 100 possessions, the eighth-best mark in the league. As nice an addition as Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is, this team finished dead last in defense last season. No one expected this kind of turnaround.
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An element of their success could be random. Lakers opponents are shooting a league-worst 33 percent from deep, usually a number that fluctuates throughout the season. When it does, it can change a team’s defensive rating in a hurry.
One of the ways that fluctuation can come about is through schedule. For example, playing the Warriors—the league’s best 3-point shooting team at 39.5 percent—three times in three weeks would normally knock a high-flying perimeter defense back down to earth. Los Angeles, though, has not budged.
Walton knows Golden State’s offense extremely well. He was Steve Kerr‘s assistant for two years, and his temporary replacement for half of one. New players and wrinkles have been added, but the competitive advantage is real. That said, the Lakers are not doing anything all that subtle to slow the Warriors. Different, yes, but not impossible to mimic.
There are three general principles of L.A.’s defense that have given Golden State problems: No-fuss switching, 3-point denial and aggressive trapping.
All of these strategies have clear drawbacks. Easy switching allows the Warriors to get the matchups they want, wherever and whenever they want them. Taking away the 3-point line opens up cuts to the basket, and bringing constant help creates similar gaps.
For these reasons, most teams opt not to defend the Golden State this way. Sure, aggressive defense may work against less talented and savvy teams, but the Warriors? They feast on exploitable switches and backdoor cuts. Why encourage them?
As Walton’s team has proven, this perception is flawed. The Warriors may appear to live off of the advantages they create, but in reality, their main sustenance is 3-pointers, where they get 35.1 percent of their offense (No. 11 in the league), and mid-rangers, where they get 15.7 percent (No. 8 in the league). Meanwhile, they score only 39.1 percent of their points in the paint, the fifth-lowest total in the league. They are the league’s sixth-best team in isolation, but they isolate less than all but eight teams.
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What makes the Warriors so unstoppable is their ability to supplement their main offense with awesome counters. Make those side dishes into entrees, and even Golden State struggles to satisfy its statistical appetite.
Los Angeles’ defense may prove to be nothing more than a regular-season gimmick. The Warriors can adjust to anything, particularly when it is worth their while. For three weeks in December, it hasn’t been. That calculus changes in May and June.
At the same time, the Lakers have mediocre defensive personnel. Lonzo Ball has impressed relative to expectations, but is still a prime candidate to get roasted. Brandon Ingram is long, but lacks strength and awareness. For all of the basket cuts L.A. is willingly allowing, none of its bigs have the recovery speed or shot-blocking penchant to fully capitalize on Walton’s gameplan.
If better defensive teams start applying similarly counterintuitive concepts, the Warriors could be genuinely challenged. Imagine Paul George, Andre Roberson and Jerami Grant in the place of Ingram, Caldwell-Pope and Julius Randle. Or Chris Paul, P.J. Tucker and Clint Capela in the place of Ball, Kyle Kuzma and Brook Lopez. What about LeBron James, J.R. Smith, Jae Crowder and Tristan Thompson in this type of scheme?
Defense is all about taking something away, ideally the thing that the offense needs the most. As well-rounded as the Warriors are, that thing is still clean looks at jump shots.
Does cutting that supply take away their “favorite” status? Hardly. They could lose 10 times more this postseason than they did last year and still win the title. No matter how you get Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant to play, they are still arguably the best offensive trio in league history.
Next: 2018 NBA Mock Draft: End of 2017 edition
Relatively speaking, what the Lakers are doing is working. For the rest of the league, looking at why that is might be a good place to start.