Lightyears ahead, Pt. 3: Future of the Golden State Warriors’ center position

The Golden State Warriors are set up to dominate the NBA for years. But what comes after that? In the final part of “Lightyears Ahead,” we examine the future of the Warriors’ center position.

It was a trade for a center that brought the Golden State Warriors legitimacy. Perceived franchise cornerstone Monta Ellis was shipped to Milwaukee for Andrew Bogut in March of 2012, landing the team the rim protector and rebounder it needed and opening the door for Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson to take over the backcourt.

The move unlocked more for the Warriors. It helped them secure the picks that became Harrison Barnes, who blossomed as a small-ball 4, and Draymond Green, whose play at the 5 eventually made Bogut dispensable.

Offloaded to make cap room for Kevin Durant, Bogut no longer patrols the paint in Oakland. And in a league that the Warriors’ play style has so dramatically changed, they don’t really miss him. Centers are gettable, and boy, have the Warriors gotten them.

Zaza Pachulia, David West, JaVale McGee, Jordan Bell and Kevon Looney make up the league’s deepest big man rotation. All are flawed players, but combine to give Steve Kerr a bit of everything. They also roughly make a combined $10 million ($11 million if you count 2016 first-rounder Damian Jones).

Things will change quickly though. Curry, Thompson, Durant and Green give the Warriors a long-term stability at the 1-4, but the 5 will be in flux year to year. In the final part of this series, we explore what that fluctuation might look like.

The three-year plan

As loaded as the center rotation is, one guy stands out as a fixture. That guy is Bell. No young player develops as expected, but it is safe to bet that Bell will at least be a high-level rotation guy in three years. Because, arguably, he already is.

Bell is an elite above-the-rim finisher and lob threat, while his best offensive skill might be his short-roll vision and passing. He is also a high-impact defender who can rebound, switch, read passing lanes and, most of all, block shots. His traditional post defense and rim protection still need work (pump fakes send him flying), but Golden State is better with him on the court than off (+6.9 net rating, fourth-best on the team). That’s rare for a any rookie, particularly one on a team with so many talented veterans.

Of the three bigs the Warriors have taken in the last three drafts, Bell is the only one that looks like the real deal. Looney has made huge strides this season, and Jones cannot be written off yet, but neither looks like a long-term piece. That puts pressure on general manager Bob Myers to keep Bell when he hits free agency in 2019. Myers can keep trying to fill the position cheaply with draft picks, the Mid-Level Exception (MLE) and the veteran’s minimum, but it would be playing with fire to let Bell walk.

After that, the 2020 big-man rotation will be full of new faces. Pachulia and West will probably be retired, and Looney will probably be playing elsewhere. McGee may or may not be hanging onto his career, as one (athleticism) of his two (athleticism and length) advantages disappear.

Jones is a wild card. He’ll be a restricted free agent in three years, assuming the Warriors exercise his 2019-20 team option. They chose not to do so with Looney this season, which was part nod and part warning sign to Jones. He has better natural center skills than Looney, but has shown a similar pattern of poor conditioning and stagnated development.

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Still, given the multiple ways Golden State could keep him (an extension, an RFA contract, a qualifying offer), it is slightly more than 50 percent likely he’s on the 2020-21 roster.

A 32-year-old Durant will play more center, as will a 30-year-old Green. New ring-chasing vets will fill in the gaps, though probably none as good as Pachulia or West. Players who have made tons of money might be willing to take a pay cut to win a title, but taking a minutes cut is something different. Guys who can still play want to still play. With Bell, Green and Durant likely combining for 30-35 minutes at the 5 each night, there is only room for one more rotation guy (and this is only if Jones does not emerge).

Mason Plumlee will hit free agency in 2020, and fits the Pachulia/West mold as a passing big. He might still be too good to get at the MLE for a minor role, though. It would not be beyond the Warriors to attempt and extract whatever is left in Tyson Chandler, or even Joakim Noah. Both are smart passers, rebounders and intense competitors—the types of bigs that thrive alongside Golden State’s superstars.

Predicted 2020-21 center depth chart

C: Jordan Bell, Draymond Green, Tyson Chandler, Kevin Durant, Damian Jones

The five-year plan

If Bell does re-sign in 2019, it will likely be for either three or four years. It’s rare for 24-year-olds to take shorter deals if longer ones are available, and teams seeking a modern center will definitely field competitive offers. Do you really think the Bulls wouldn’t fork out four years and $60 million to pair Bell with Lauri Markkanen? Bad example maybe, but you get the point.

A four-year deal will keep Bell around until 2023. If he signs a three-year deal, the Warriors will have to make another decision on him in the summer of 2022.

That decision may be tougher than the first one. As often as Bell is compared to Green, he is far less reliant on I.Q. and more on athleticism, a talent that ages less gracefully. Bell, at 27, may be the worst kind of free agent: The one with the leverage of a career year, and the profile of a guy nearing decline.

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To be fair, Bell is strong, long and skilled. He should be a good defender, rebounder and passing big man into his 30s, health permitting. At the same time, an aging Green might not pair great with an aging Bell, as both will be closer to pure centers at that point.

Considering the possibility that he is still playing out a four-year deal in 2022, however, we have to project that Bell will be around.

If they do let him go, the Warriors will likely pursue a more mobile floor-spacer. Think Markkanen, Noah Vonleh, an aging Patrick Patterson—bigs who can shoot and switch, even if they aren’t necessarily rim protectors. Of course Myers would like a more complete player, but he will have prioritize given inevitable cap constraints.

Durant and Green are likely to be Warriors in 2022 (we discussed this in Part 2 of this series). Whether or not Bell stays, they will be the primary backups. Jones becomes unlikely to stick when we move from three to five years, given that if he does stay it probably will be on short terms.

Beyond that, expect more ring-chasing vets. Plumlee should be affordable at this point (he’ll be 32). A 36-year-old Al Horford or 37-year-old Marc Gasol might also be. It is certainly fun to think about.

Next: 2018 NBA Mock Draft: End of 2017 edition

Predicted 2022-23 center depth chart

C: Jordan Bell, Draymond Green, Kevin Durant, Marc Gasol, future draft pick