2018 NBA Draft: What Marvin Bagley III can teach us about discussing prospects

Marvin Bagley III has taken college basketball by storm when he could be in high school, but what does this all mean for his future in the NBA?

There’s no denying how impressive and productive Marvin Bagley III has been at Duke. For a kid who might have stayed in high school to put up numbers like this is astounding. Through 12 games, Bagley is averaging 21.3 points and 11.3 rebounds per game while shooting over 61 percent from the floor. That comes out to a Player Efficiency Rating of 31.2, according to Sports Reference.

Bagley has done well to produce despite playing with another big man most of the time, not to mention Duke has relatively poor spacing thanks to Trevon Duval being a non-threat. Still, Bagley has dominated against great competition like Florida, Texas and Mohamed Bamba, and Michigan State.

How Bagley does his damage

Where he thrives is with his motor and bounce. Bagley is quick off the ground both on his first and second jumps, which has led to him dominating the glass. So far this year, Duke’s phenomenal freshman is bringing down 13 percent of his team’s misses and over 24 percent of all available defensive rebounds. That’s with another big on the floor and an excellent rebounder at point guard in Duval.

Bagley has shown a decent first step and great touch with his left hand. He does most of his work inside on offense, whereas he shows his most potential defensively on the perimeter. Becoming an elite big at switching on the perimeter would see Bagley ready for the modern NBA. If he can add a decent jump shot as well, look out. While he’s just 8-for-24 to start the year from 3, he definitely has real potential there.

Now that covers most of Bagley’s positives. With some improvement with his passing and the ability to occasionally push the ball in transition, there’s a lot to like.

When it comes to weaknesses, he is a poor rim protector. If Bagley could do so or had measurements closer to DeAndre Ayton, he’d probably go no later than second. He still might not. But when you pair the lack of length of rim protection with poor shooting, his lack of a right hand and defensive feel, he certainly is not as much of a slam dunk prospect as many are making him out to be.

What to make of Bagley as a prospect

When we look at Bagley’s apparent strengths and weaknesses, it brings up a really fascinating discussion about his future role in the NBA. He’s going to struggle to protect the rim in the NBA, which is odd given his motor and athleticism. Bagley’s ceiling is more than likely to be an average rim protector at best. Therefore it’s hard to envision him as a defensive anchor. It’d be great to pair him with a unicorn 5 who could protect the rim and let Bagley operate as a 5 on offense.

Right now, Bagley looks like a possible plus defender at power forward, but offensively better suited to play center. For most players, fit is really important, but that might be even more true for Bagley this year. If you’re buying his 3-point shot, which I think will become league average, his offensive ceiling is incredible. Then if he can switch 1-5, he’ll make up for the lack of rim protection.

Bagley vs. the field

In the context of this big man class, it’s hard to firmly put anyone but Ayton firmly ahead of Bagley on potential. Ayton has a rare higher ceiling on both ends, with true unicorn potential and measurables that should allow him to be a force protecting the rim. With Bamba and Jaren Jackson Jr., Bagley has a much higher offensive ceiling. So, you get into the question of whether the former’s two-way potential and defensive prowess outweigh what Bagley can do offensively.

Bagley is probably the safest pick in the draft, but that doesn’t mean he’s a great fit for every team or that he has the highest ceiling. It’s going to be fascinating to see how all the bigs finish the year and where the lottery luck lands.

His NBA fit

With Bagley, his NBA team will be getting an offensive force who can grow into a defender that can switch onto guards. However, it’s unclear how well he can score on the best defensive centers or if he can anchor a defense. There’s still a lot of value in someone like Bagley, likely top-five value. However, the two-way potential, even if it’s just potential, of guys like Ayton, Jackson and Bamba makes you think harder about what you want in a top pick and what we really value in the draft.

Though Bagley is safer, he’s no guarantee in any way. If you could choose in hindsight, most would likely choose a two-way center, but we don’t have hindsight when the draft comes around, obviously. That’s why fit is so important. Some of the best fits for him could be in Atlanta playing for Mike Budenholzer or in Memphis under the wings of Marc Gasol.

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The example that Bagley sets is that we can’t get too caught up in production. He has serious flaws, as most prospects do, and plays into debates of ceiling vs. floor and safe vs. risky. He’s an interesting case study, as is most of the top of this draft class. It’ll be interesting to see how much we may see and learn by March.