Stephen Curry’s injury leaves Warriors without their best player
Stephen Curry will miss at least two weeks after suffering his first serious ankle sprain in years on Dec. 4. While most understand his central role in Golden State’s offense, his absence is like to prove that his impact is still under-appreciated.
To say that Stephen Curry is the Golden State Warriors’ “most important” player is a bit insulting.
It is not that Curry is not Golden State’s most crucial piece. He is, and the on/off numbers prove it. Without him on the court, they are merely good (+6.1 net rating). With him, they are historically great (+16.6 net rating).
Yet calling Curry the “most vital” often has a built-in assumption that Kevin Durant is the team’s true best player. It is a token of respect, akin to calling Draymond Green the “heart and soul” back before Durant came to Oakland. Everyone knew Curry was better, but also wanted to give Green his due. “Their defense falls off when he sits,” people would say. “He unlocks so much for them as a small-ball 5.”
After all due respect was given, however, no one genuinely believed that Green was the team’s true engine. Curry made them go, and this was as true then as it is now. That reality is still well understood, save for more casual observers who do not dabble in things like advanced numbers (RPM, net rating) or critical observation (the double and triple-teams he draws 25 feet from the hoop create mismatches and openings for everyone).
On Dec. 4, Curry rolled his ankle badly in New Orleans. There was no structural damage, but he is expected to miss at least two weeks. As appreciated as Curry’s impact is, the repercussions of his extended absence may not be fully be resonating.
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Durant is inarguably a top-five NBA player (I rank him No. 3). Any team featuring a reigning Finals MVP alongside perennial All-Stars Green and Klay Thompson should be considered a juggernaut, if not the league’s odds-on title favorite. Swap out Durant for Curry, and you have essentially last years post-Durant-injury Warriors — a team that started out slowly, but rattled off a 13-game winning streak before Durant’s return.
There are two key differences, however, between the two scenarios. The first is that Durant, for all his exploits, has not looked like the same player this season that he was last June. He’s getting to the line at a career-low rate (4.6 attempts per game), not defending with the same dedication (despite a career-high 2.0 blocks) and turning the ball over an alarming 3.6 times a game. It’s a career high, coming on the heels of last year’s career-low 2.2 turnovers.
Whether this is a product of disengagement or physical decline, it will take a quick pivot for Durant to carry this team through Curry’s absence.
The second distinguishing factor is familiarity. While Durant’s injury shook up last year’s team, they quickly reverted — in the most positive sense — to their pre-Durant identity: A dominant two-way machine fueled by Curry, Thompson and Green.
The roles with those three are clear. Everything flows through Curry offensively, though others can grab and go while Curry spots up. Thompson seamlessly oscillates between being a floor-spacing spot-up shooter day-to-day and an offensive savior when necessary, and the guy that normally draws point guard defenders while bigger wings take his backcourt mate. Green is the tempo pusher, the pick-and-roll partner and of course the defensive anchor.
How do these roles shake out with Durant replacing Curry? The defense will not change much; it might improve if anything given the added size that Shaun Livingston or Andre Iguodala bring as the de-facto point guards.
However, neither of those veterans can come close to replacing Curry’s command of the offense. Things will likely flow through Durant, but does he have the intuitive sense of the game and understanding of his teammates to know how to set them up, when to get them involved and when to take over? He can certainly draw double-teams, but can he manipulate the defense like Curry? He is neither the passer or ball-handler Curry is, nor is he the outside shooter or isolation scorer.
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None of this is earth-shattering. Again, it is widely understood that Curry is the Warriors’ most important player, and that the team will be considerably worse in his absence. What is less understood is that the No. 1 reason for this is not Curry’s role as the team’s engine, but as its biggest star.