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The Milwaukee Bucks can’t trade for DeAndre Jordan

By Max Carlin

Photo by Jordan Johnson/NBAE via Getty Images
Photo by Jordan Johnson/NBAE via Getty Images /
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Los Angeles Clippers star DeAndre Jordan is on the market, and he seems destined to land with the Milwaukee Bucks. Unfortunately, that’s just not going to be possible.

In the Los Angeles Clippers’ defense, who could have possibly seen it coming?

Last offseason, the Clippers committed a hair over $235 million to Blake Griffin and Danilo Gallinari. The Clippers paid a great deal for their services, but supremely talented and versatile forwards are expensive. Perhaps the only cause for concern was that neither Gallinari nor Griffin had played more than 66 games in a season in three years.

Today is Dec. 6. Gallinari’s been out for a month with a strained glute. Griffin, more importantly, is expected to miss the next two months with a sprained MCL. Professional nuisance Patrick Beverley is also lost for the season. The Clippers sit at 8-14, losers of three straight. But who could have seen that coming?

As is the norm when the Clippers struggle, one name has catapulted to the forefront of trade rumors: DeAndre Jordan. These Jordan rumors, however, feel very different from those of the past.

When Chris Paul was still in town, the Clippers had something to fight for, a (however misguided) belief that, given the right circumstances, a championship was in reach. Clippers management is no longer drunk on delusions of grandeur.

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The Clippers are bad, the top of the lottery is within reach and DeAndre Jordan is in the last year of his contract (he has a player option for next year that he’ll surely decline).

Jordan has done his part in stoking the flames of rumor season. For the last two years, he’s been a bit of an NBA oddity, as he hasn’t had an agent. On Dec. 4, that changed, and it changed meaningfully.

Not only did Jordan finally sign with an agent, but he signed with Jeff Schwartz. The same Jeff Schwartz who’s famous for representing a good portion of the Milwaukee Bucks roster and head coach Jason Kidd. Schwartz has long been rumored to carry great weight in Milwaukee’s front office.

DeAndre Jordan is available. The Bucks need a center. DeAndre Jordan signed with an agent with deep ties in Milwaukee. Suffice it to say, people have begun connecting the dots.

Jordan is quietly historic

Confession time: I love DeAndre Jordan. He’s one of my absolute favorite players in the entire NBA, and I’ve long held that he ranks among the league’s most underappreciated stars.

Let’s get the obvious out of the way first: Jordan is good at rebounding. Since he entered the league in 2008, only Andre Drummond and Dwight Howard (minimum 10,000 minutes) have higher total rebounding percentages.

Defensively, he’s a stalwart. Last season, Jordan allowed opponents to shoot just 50.1 percent at the rim, besting the likes of Paul Millsap, Steven Adams and Bismack Biyombo. Defending the roll man in pick-and-roll, he allowed just 0.89 points per possession, equaling the mark posted by notably mobile and defensively adept Al Horford.

Unlike the Clippers’ other stars, Jordan is remarkably durable. Since 2010, no one has played in more NBA regular season games than Jordan.

You’re starting to get it, right? What’s not to love about rebound-eating, defense-anchoring big who’s never hurt?

But there’s more: DeAndre Jordan is an historically dominant offensive player. I know, you’re laughing at me right now. You’re envisioning this:

Let me make my case. So far, this season, Jordan is leading the NBA in effective field goal percentage, which adjusts for 3s being inherently more valuable than 2s (it hurts Jordan relative to other players). This is Jordan’s sixth consecutive season leading the NBA in effective field goal percentage.

Historically, he’s unprecedented. Jordan has the highest career effective field goal percentage ever (minimum 8,000 minutes) at 67.7 percent. Second all-time is Hall-of-Famer Artis Gilmore…at 59.9 percent. The gap between Jordan and Gilmore, 7.8 percent, equals the gap between Gilmore and Carlos Boozer, who has the 136th-highest effective field goal percentage in NBA history.

If you prefer to use true shooting percentage, which accounts for free throws (one of the few areas Jordan struggles), he admittedly falls off a bit…all the way down to second all-time (minimum 8,000 minutes).

Jordan’s offensive contributions are not limited to himself. He, for example, was fourth in the NBA in screen assists per game last year. He consistently sets vicious screens, opening teammates for jumpers or springing them toward the rim unimpeded.

Jordan’s greatest offensive contribution, unfortunately, cannot be measured: Jordan has gravity.

Gravity is typically a term you’ll hear associated with shooters and ball-handlers. It refers to a player’s effect on the defense, his ability to pull defenders toward him. Gravity is so valuable because it prevents help, and if you can’t help, the defensive burden on each individual player is immense.

So, how does DeAndre Jordan, who attempts nearly 100 percent of his shots at the rim, have this nebulous thing that’s typically attributed to perimeter shooters? The lob.

Jordan cannot be helped off, because he’ll do this:

When Jordan’s on the court, the lob is a constant threat. He’s too athletic, too long, too strong. His defender must stick to him at all times, and given the defensive role of the center, that’s a serious problem for defenses.

Jordan’s offensive impact is borne out in on/off numbers, which measure how the offense performs with Jordan on the floor vs. off. Keep in mind, these numbers are slightly noisy due to Jordan playing most of his minutes alongside other elite talent in LA. The Clippers’ offense has been better with Jordan on-court every year since 2009-10.

Not only has it been better, it’s been massively better—at least 6.6 points per 100 possessions better for each of the last six years.

Jordan is savvy and smart and has excellent chemistry with just about everyone on the Clippers. It doesn’t matter what you throw at him. If you’re late getting back to him after dropping in pick-and-roll coverage, he’ll dunk on you. If you help off him to meet a driver at the rim, he’ll dunk on you. If you try to ICE side pick-and-roll, he’ll slip the screen and dunk on you.

And you know that. That’s constantly in the back of your mind. Fear is a weapon, and Jordan uses it better than anyone, quietly bending defenses to his will.

I’m guessing you get it now. How could you not love DeAndre Jordan?

The Bucks would be insane to trade for him

It pains me so to say this: The Bucks would be insane to trade for Jordan.

This has very little to do with Jordan himself. On-court, I’m not wild about the idea of the Bucks adding another non-shooter, but I honestly believe Jordan’s gravity would be enough to make the fit work with Eric Bledsoe and Giannis Antetokounmpo. This is all about off-court implications.

Jordan’s salary for 2017-18 is $22.6 million. To acquire him without exceeding the luxury tax threshold (presumably a mandate from ownership) the Bucks would have to send out at least  $18.2 million (less than $22.8 million to keep the Clippers under the tax). With Antetokounmpo, Bledsoe and Khris Middleton assuredly off the table, that’s a tall task.

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John Henson would almost certainly be in any deal, but other than that, it’s tough to find a combination of salaries and assets that would be worthwhile for both teams.

But say the Bucks do miraculously pull a Jordan trade off. That would just be the start of their problems.

Next year, the Bucks have $105.6 million in committed salary (plus stretched salary). Let’s pretend the Bucks traded Henson, Jabari Parker and Malcolm Brogdon for Jordan. They’d then have $89.6 million in committed salary, not including Jordan’s cap hold.

Assume Jordan wants to stay in Milwaukee, and re-ups for the max. As a 10-year veteran, he’ll be eligible for a starting salary of 35 percent of the salary cap, which is projected to come in at $101 million. Jordan, would therefore, have a starting salary of $35.4 million, bringing the Bucks’ committed salary to a whopping $128.8 million, several million dollars into the tax.

From that point forward, life in Milwaukee’s front office would be tough. Retaining Bledsoe and Middleton the following year would be impossible. Growing the roster in any meaningful way would be impossible.

Next: 2017-18 Week 8 NBA Power Rankings

DeAndre Jordan is a marvelous player. He’s a game-changer on both ends, a quiet superstar. For the Bucks, though, he’s a harsh reality, because as much as they might want — or even need –him, they simply can’t afford him.

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