Where do Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant rank in the MVP race?
Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant may have to share a spotlight, but that hasn’t stopped either Golden State Warriors superstar from building a strong early-season MVP candidacy. How real are their respective chances, though?
It is extremely rare for an NBA team to have two legitimate MVP candidates. It is rarer still for a team to have two guys who have combined to win the award three times in the last four seasons.
The one year since 2013-14 that neither Stephen Curry nor Kevin Durant was MVP was also their only full season as teammates. That is not coincidental. While the two combine to make the Golden State Warriors the most unguardable team in NBA history, they also limit each other as statistical forces.
That does not mean that the award is out of either’s grasp. They are still the second- and third-best players in the league behind LeBron James, and they will be MVP contenders as long as that remains true.
How strong are their 2017-18 resumes thus far though? And whose is better?
Durant’s case
If his recent ankle ailment proves to be his most significant injury this season, Durant will play enough games to warrant consideration. This was not the case last year; he was firmly in the race before a sprained MCL and bruised tibia caused him to miss 19 games down the stretch.
While he is not getting to the line with his usual frequency (4.7 times a game), Durant is still scoring more efficiently than ever. His true shooting percentage is a respectable 63.8, while his 43.1 3-point percentage is a career-best. He’s also become an elite defender, ranking fourth in the league with 2.0 blocks per game.
The Warriors are 16-6, but could easily have the league’s best record within a matter of weeks. If they do, he’ll be in the thick of the discussion — especially if this coincides with Durant staying on the court.
The general consensus is that Durant is better than Curry. If their numbers stay comaparable, Durant is likely to garner more MVP consideration.
Curry’s case
As funny as Draymond Green‘s “peaking?!” remarks were, Dieter Kurtenbach asked his question for a reason. A simple reason, really: Curry is, in many ways, peaking.
He’s getting to the line 6.7 times a game. That’s not only a career high, but it places him ahead of James and Durant, and just behind Russell Westbrook. He’s also shooting 94 percent on those trips. He’s averaging career highs in rebound rate, 2-point shooting and a career low in turnovers, while improving even further as a defender.
The only reason Curry is not blatantly peaking is that he’s shooting 3s at a nadir (36.8 percent for a 43.5 percent career shooter). If he gets his triple going, he’ll be more dominant than ever. If a guy who has already won two MVPs is playing his best basketball, how is he not a serious candidate?
Where they rank
James Harden is the clear favorite, topping the NBA in scoring (31.7 points per game) and assists (9.8 per game) while leading Houston to a 16-4 record. LeBron James is next, given his 28-8-8 averages and how the Cleveland Cavaliers are suddenly scorching.
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Giannis Antetokounmpo has been amazing statistically, but the Milwaukee Bucks are eighth in the East at 10-9. Kyrie Irving‘s Boston Celtics are an NBA-best 18-4, but his numbers are nowhere close to MVP-worthy. That puts Curry and Durant third and fourth, with the slight edge going to the point guard.
Curry comes in ahead of Durant for two reasons. First, he’s been healthier. Durant’s five missed games are not enough to cost him the MVP, but five more could. Curry has played in all but two contests, and therefore has a wider margin for error with missed games from here on out.
Second, his statistical profile is better. It is better traditionally, better by advanced metrics and better when projecting forward. He’s outscoring Durant (26.1 points per game to 24.9), and equalling him in cumulative rebounds and assists (5.2 and 6.4 for Curry, 6.8 and 4.7 for Durant). His net rating is +17.0 to Durant’s +13.8.
While both players have posted some odd totals in certain categories so far, Curry’s numbers are more likely to trend up overall. It is much more conceivable that each player regresses to their career average in 3-point shooting than it is that they do so in free throw attempts. One is based on a high-variance shot going in a couple times more each week, while the other is based on how often a player is breaking down the defense, getting into the paint and forcing late help.
Next: 2017-18 Week 7 NBA Power Rankings
It is a mute point right now, because neither guy is close to Harden. This could change if Chris Paul cuts into Harden’s numbers, or if the Rockets slip well below the Warriors. If that happens, it will come down to Curry, Durant and James — not an unfamiliar story.