Are the Golden State Warriors really a 60-win team?
The Golden State Warriors (15-6) have lost more times through a quarter of the 2017-18 season than they did through the first 21 games of the previous three years combined. Is this a sample size blip, or a sign of things to come?
Las Vegas was bullish on the Golden State Warriors entering this season, as was everyone else. The team’s over/under was set at 67.5 (a number only six teams have surpassed in NBA history), and most considered it to be one of the safer “over” bets.
Since Steve Kerr took over for Mark Jackson, the Warriors have averaged 69 wins each year. Combining that with their improved depth and Kevin Durant‘s further integration, that number seemed like a baseline for 2017-18.
As November ends, Golden State is playing at a much more modest clip. At 15-6, it is on pace to win closer to 50 (58.57, more precisely) than 70 games.
Of course, there is a ton of noise when quadrupling out a 21-game sample. If Omri Casspi doesn’t foul Garrett Temple shooting a 3 down the stretch of the Warriors’ Nov. 28 loss to the Kings, Golden State is on pace for 62.47 wins. The team’s expected record is 17-4 (based on net rating), which would put them on a 66.38 win pace.
They have also been relatively healthy. Durant has missed four games with a sprained ankle, while Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Andre Iguodala and Shaun Livingston have all missed a game or two apiece, but that rate is more likely to get higher than lower. Kerr has scheduled rest for his core veterans throughout the season, and this prioritizing of the postseason will probably continue to cost the Warriors games here and there (as it did against Sacramento, when Curry and Durant both sat).
Whether the Warriors are lucky or unlucky so far, they still do not look like a high 60s-win team. Six losses are six losses, and they have not hit that threshold before New Years in the Kerr era. To reach their over, they will have to go 53-8, while 65 wins would require a 50-11 finish.
Both are doable. The question is, are the 2017-18 Warriors the type of team that will do it?
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The eye test says that Golden State’s biggest weakness thus far has been inconsistent effort. It has led by double digits in all but one of its losses, and by 14 in all but two. It can flip the switch like no team ever has, but has failed to do so at the right moments this year.
That will not automatically change. The Warriors entered each of the previous three seasons with something to prove: That they belonged in 2014-15, that they were not flukes in 2015-16 and that they could avenge their Finals collapse in 2016-17. After winning last year’s title with no naysayers and no drama, the regular season drive that made them so special in year’s past may simply be gone.
Having said that, habits are difficult to break. It is simply not in this core’s DNA to play at a sub-optimal level for very long. Curry vocalized his frustration after last year’s Christmas Day loss dropped the team to 27-5. Green nearly fought Kerr at halftime when they were in danger of falling to 52-6 on Feb. 27, 2016. Curry ultimately willed them to victory with 12 3s on a freshly sprained ankle, pushing their record to a much more respectable 53-5.
It is this mentality that had me convinced that Nate Duncan’s preseason projection of a 59-win “floor” for this team was far too low. I particularly disagreed with the reasoning he gave on Dunc’d On:
"“I think maybe they’ll just have such a malaise about the regular season that they really just won’t try. The makeup of these players so far has been much different than, say, maybe a Cleveland, whereas these guys are just competitors. If they’re out there, they are going to try…so, maybe if they lose that kind of an edge, you can see them dropping off no matter how talented they are.”"
Duncan’s conclusion felt true. If the Warriors lost their edge, they could drop to around 60. But that edge, it seemed, was as much a part of the team as their talent. Green’s supreme intensity is what made him into a star in the first place. Curry’s legendary work ethic transformed him from a non All-Star at age 24 to the only active player to ever be considered better than LeBron James just three years later. Klay Thompson, Iguodala, Livingston, David West — the entire roster embodies commitment as much as it does natural basketball talent.
To be clear, Duncan predicted 69 wins, with a 72-win “ceiling,” but simply thought that there was more room for slippage than most (his guest, The Athletic’s Anthony Slater, saw 64 as the worst-case scenario).
Thus far, Duncan appears to be right. For the first time in the Kerr era, the team has seemed disinterested in the regular season for an extended period of time. Their losses have not served as wake-up calls, nor their wins as momentum builders. They did rattle off a seven-game winning streak, but even that relied on nightly third quarter explosions to blow open games they had meandered halfway through.
There is one other possible explanation for the team’s early struggles: Physical decline. Three straight trips to the NBA Finals is taxing, even when playing for a minutes-managing coach. Durant and Curry are both 29, an age at which players can start to lose a touch of athleticism.
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Last season, Durant went 270-of-345 at the rim (78.3 percent on 5.6 shots per game). This year, he is 40-of-57 (70.2 percent on 3.6 shots). Focusing specifically on dunks, Durant has fallen from 97.8 percent on 2.2 attempts per game (132-of-135) to 81.5 percent on 1.7 attempts (22-of-27). He’s also getting to the line less than ever (4.8 times per game, down from 6.2 last year and 7.9 for his career). Less driving, worse finishing and diminished ability to create contact are often signs of losing a step.
Curry has never been an explosive player, but his 3-point shot depends heavily on athleticism. Never a textbook jump shooter (think Thompson or Ray Allen), Curry channels the power of his dribble and his lower-body torque into his release.
He has never quite shot the same since he sprained his MCL in the 2016 NBA Playoffs. A career 44.4 percent shooter from deep before the injury, Curry shot a career-low 41.1 percent last year. This year, he’s at 37.0. He shot too well over his first 574 NBA games to freak out over his most recent 19, but there’s at least a chance he’s simply gotten worse.
Of course, Curry is having a career year in many other ways. He’s getting to the line 6.6 times a game (his previous career high is 5.1), committing a career-low 2.9 turnovers and posting a 63.9 true shooting percentage, second-best of his career. He’s a better defender than ever, and a better rebounder.
As Curry improves as a driver, defender and rebounder, Durant is ascending as a shooter. He is averaging a career-best 43.2 3-point shooting percentage and 64.7 true shooting percentage. His 2.1 blocks per game are also a career high.
Overall, evidence for Curry and Durant’s decline is sketchy at best. Every other key player — Thompson, Green, Iguodala, Livingston, West, Zaza Pachulia — is performing at a level equal to or better than last year. Championship hangover is a more likely diagnosis than Finals fatigue.
That’s good news for the Warriors’ win total prospects. Mental exhaustion is easier to shake than physical, and the team’s fundamentals already make this stretch feel a bit flukey. One of the Warriors’ close losses going their way and a more normal 3-point shooting stretch for Curry (even just reaching 40 percent, if he’s not a 45 percent shooter anymore), and the team could easily go 18-3 over its next 21 games. That would put them at 33-9, on pace for 64.42 wins.
If they can do this while also regaining their intensity, their Vegas over is still in reach. They have the talent to hit just about any number put in front of them, provided there are at least that many games left in the season.
Next: 2017-18 Week 7 NBA Power Rankings
Thus far, they simply do not appear up for that type of challenge. It is no tragedy, but a potential new reality for a team trying to string together several more title runs. Check back in six more weeks.