Denver Nuggets: The devolution of Emmanuel Mudiay

Emmanuel Mudiay was a tantalizing prospect for the Denver Nuggets. Then his greatest strength became his greatest weakness.

The Denver Nuggets were acutely aware of Emmanuel Mudiay’s shortcomings when they made him the seventh overall selection in the 2015 NBA Draft.

For a point guard, some of those weaknesses were beyond troubling. He couldn’t shoot—he had a tendency to release on the way down—or defend, and he turned the ball over with disturbing frequency.

Widely considered a bust, it’s obvious that these glaring weaknesses translated. Mudiay is a career 32.8 percent 3-point shooter, the Nuggets defense has been markedly better with him on the bench each of the last two years, and he’s turned the ball over on 17.4 percent of his possessions (Russell Westbrook, who had the second-most turnovers in a season in NBA history last year, coughed it up on just 15.9 percent of his possessions).

Going into the draft, we knew about these deficiencies, yet Mudiay was still a top prospect in a loaded class. He did have tantalizing tools and upside. And in reality, it’s those tools that have made Mudiay the bust he is.

Mudiay was a point guard who couldn’t shoot; scouts were well aware of the risks associated with a prospect in that mold. However, the idea of Mudiay as a prospect hinged on him being able to overcome his inability to shoot primarily through overwhelming athleticism.

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In their scouting report on Mudiay, DraftExpress lauded his athleticism, praising his first step and ability to finish above the rim. Offensively, that finishing ability was probably his greatest strength.

In the NBA, it’s been his biggest weakness.

At the rim, Mudiay’s shot 47 percent in his career. It’s tough to adequately illustrate how bad that is, but in the last five years, no team has shot below 55.1 percent at the rim.

Watching Mudiay attempt to finish at the rim is painful. His touch makes Marcus Smart look like Stephen Curry. Despite his ability to finish with both hands being touted by scouts pre-draft, he seems thoroughly unable and unwilling to shoot with his left hand. There are, to my eyes, two issues more glaring than all others when it comes to his finishing, though, and they’re tied to other flaws in his game.

Mudiay is exceptionally turnover-prone, evidence of his terrible decision-making, which manifests itself in his attempts at the rim as well:

Mudiay sees the help defender, Kyle O’Quinn—a truly elite shot-blocker—coming and decides to challenge him. Mudiay’s not pressed for time. He doesn’t have to shoot. The correct decision is obviously not to shoot, but Mudiay is incapable of making the correct decision. The result is as expected: a humbling block.

Mudiay perfectly highlights why an inability to shoot is such a hindrance:

Mudiay’s defender, Frank Mason III, does close out on him, but he doesn’t respect Mudiay as a threat from 3 (even though he’s shooting a vastly improved 41.2 percent there this year), so he’s able to stay with him (sort of) on the drive. The rest of the Kings, meanwhile, can pack the paint, because they know Mudiay’s not a threat. The result: another ugly blocked shot.

Emmanuel Mudiay was a compelling prospect. He had very obvious and significant flaws, but he was still a top prospect in a strong draft. At seventh overall, he was considered a major steal by some of the scouting industry’s most respected names.

Simultaneously, Mudiay was both exactly who we thought he was and not at all who we thought he was. His most concerning weaknesses, they were very real. His most compelling strengths? Not so much.

In many ways, Mudiay is a cautionary tale. He demonstrates that looking the part, having the athleticism and frame of a star, means very little if you lack commensurate skill. He’s living proof that a point guard without a shot is not a viable option. He validates the notion that what’s between your ears is as important as any other physical trait.

For the Nuggets, these insights are helpful, but secondary. To them, Mudiay is a mistake, the embodiment of a worst-case scenario—a notion that’s all too neglected when we discuss prospects.

Next: 2017-18 Week 7 NBA Power Rankings

As Mudiay toils with the second unit, the Nuggets continue to look elsewhere for their point guard of the future (an open search, even with Jamal Murray on the roster), quickly forgetting that not long ago, we were all caught up in the upside of an athletic freak who was destined to figure the rest out later.