Golden State Warriors: Is Boston the nightmare Finals matchup?

The Golden State Warriors have a worse record against the Boston Celtics (2-3) than the Cleveland Cavaliers (3-1) over the past two regular seasons. Will that translate to a potential Finals matchup?

The Golden State Warriors had three of their five lowest-scoring quarters of the season in a 92-88 loss to the Boston Celtics that ended their seven-game winning streak. Stephen Curry, who generally drives the Warriors’ all-time greatest offense, was held to nine points on 3-of-14 shooting. But while the 2015-16 scoring champ is subject to off nights here and there due to the high variance nature of shooting 3s, his bread and butter, another number is more concerning: -14.

Curry is out of the scoring title business. With Kevin Durant and a peaking Klay Thompson by his side, he doesn’t need to put up 30 points a night for the Warriors to dominate. That’s why, even as Curry is having the worst outside shooting season of his career, he is leading the NBA with a plus/minus of +13.5. When he is on the court, the Warriors’ offense goes. Against Boston, it did not.

The sample size is miniscule. Curry missed the previous game with a thigh bruise, and we’ve seen leg injuries hamper his effectiveness in the past. Boston got what appeared to be a favorable home whistle, as Curry and Thompson combined for 10 fouls — the same number Boston’s entire backcourt of Kyrie Irving, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart and Terry Rozier combined for — despite the extreme defensive physicality that Brad Stevens’ teams are known for.

That kind of physicality, however, is exactly what Golden State should expect in the postseason. It does not have the same adverse effect on Durant (24 points on 9-of-18 shooting) as it does on Curry, but Durant cannot orchestrate the entire offense the way Curry does.

The Celtics understand this, and that’s why their decision to focus in on Curry was so astute. They let Durant “get his,” but 24 points on 18 shots doesn’t hurt you if you are sound elsewhere. The same is true if Durant goes off and scores 30 points on those 18 shots, or even 35 on 20.

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When Curry is allowed to do his thing, the impact is entirely different. It is not only about his ability to score efficiently in his shooting possessions, but to make the entire offense efficient on every possession. He can manipulate the defense with his deep range and ball-handling, and is as good at next-level reads and passes as anyone.

Durant and Thompson, meanwhile, are both big targets. They know how to get open off the ball far better than Curry, and can get their shot off with no airspace. Honing in on them while letting Curry do his thing is a losing strategy all around. That’s why Stevens has always done the opposite. Avery Bradley might be gone, but Smart, Rozier and an improved Irving had a similar impact.

The Warriors should be heavy favorites in any potential Finals matchup. No matter how well the Celtics can defend them, the Warriors can do the same on the other end. Boston scored only 92 points, and without 38 trips to the line, that number would have been far uglier.

In a defense-oriented seven-game series, the winner will be whoever musters just a few more stretches of offense. The team with more experience, more MVPs and more All-Stars is more likely do that.

At the same time, there is more opportunity for an upset in a defensive series than an offensive one. The Cavaliers tried to outscore the Warriors last year, and were met with terrible results. If every shot is easy and every score is high, talent will always win out over a seven-game sample. If every shot is difficult and every score is low, randomness comes more into play.

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The Celtics (and Warriors) will have to get there first. Boston’s lack of experience and star power may rear its head in the postseason, and LeBron James might still be the only factor that matters in the East. The Warriors, as of right now, should hope so.