Denver Nuggets: The offense is broken, and here’s why
By Max Carlin
The Denver Nuggets have accomplished their offseason goal of improving their league-worst defense, but that improvement has come with crushing consequences.
Last year, the Denver Nuggets had no misconceptions about who they were. Offensively, they were unstoppable, scoring a blistering 110.0 points per 100 possessions, good for fifth-best in the NBA. Defensively, they were — to put it charitably — forgettable, surrendering 110.5 points per 100 possessions, good for the second-worst mark in the league.
Every night, the Nuggets knew they’d have to outscore you, because they sure as hell weren’t stopping you.
Understandably, addressing that defense was a priority for Denver this offseason. The offseason unfolded near-perfectly for the Nuggets, as Hawks star Paul Millsap had very few serious suitors in free agency. A stout and versatile defender, Millsap made the All-Defensive Second Team in 2016, and his all-around game had carried him to four consecutive All-Star appearances.
On July 2, Millsap agreed to bring his defensive acumen to Denver. Given the Nuggets’ track record and general lack of defensive talent, transforming the unit into a defensive juggernaut was always going to be quite the task, but so far, the returns have been strong.
The Nuggets are surrendering a 105.7 points per 100 possessions, per NBA.com, which ranks 18th and is perfectly mediocre. Perfectly mediocre on one end is okay, provided you’re elite on the other, which Denver was last year.
Alas, last year is not this year. So far, the Nuggets are scoring a meager 103.7 points per 100 possessions, which ranks 16th in the NBA. The Nuggets had the NBA’s fifth-best offense last year, added a bonafide star, and are now middling. How could you have not seen that coming?
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To be fair, it’s probably because you weren’t counting on the Nuggets discovering time travel.
It’s almost always advisable to minimize attempts from mid-range, because they are low-percentage, low-expected-value shots, but if you’re good enough at hitting them, they can be worthwhile (to an extent).
Last year, the Nuggets were not good from the mid-range, hitting at 41.3 percent, 13th in the NBA. Their mediocrity from mid-range was a non-issue, though. They didn’t shoot them, attempting just 29.6 percent of their field goals from that area of the floor (26th).
As the rest of the NBA moved into 2017, the Nuggets seem to have caught a DeLorean back to 1993.
The Nuggets, a year after relegating the mid-range shot to the fringes of their offense, have made it a staple in 2017. They’re attempting 43.3 percent of their shots from mid-range, the fourth-highest mark in the league.
Every shot in basketball has value, provided you deploy it at the proper intersection of volume and efficiency. In 2016-17, the Nuggets shot mid-rangers ineffectively, so they refrained from shooting them. This year, the Nuggets have upped their volume, but their efficiency? It’s gotten even worse (37.8 percent, which ranks 22nd).
The Nuggets are taking more of an inherently inefficient shot, despite getting even worse at converting. Why?
Part of the problem is certainly new personnel. Paul Millsap, for all his virtues, is not a particularly good 3-point shooter, which leads to possessions like this:
In a simple pick-and-pop, Mike Muscala drops back to contain Gary Harris, leaving Millsap wide open at the top of the key. He loads up and should let it fly, but pumps, drives, goes behind the back, and hits a ridiculous one-legged fadeaway. It’s pretty, but it’s not good offense.
Millsap turned down a good look in favor of a lesser one, but that’s part of his game; you’re going to have to live with it.
The Nuggets’ offensive struggles extend far beyond the quirks of Millsap’s game, though. Denver’s O has been disjointed. It’s been unable to generate good looks, instead settling for low-percentage, contested mid-rangers:
The Nuggets are currently taking 13 percent of their shots (ninth-most) with the closest defender 0-2 feet away. They’re settling. They simply have to take what the defense is giving them, because their offense isn’t capable of generating anything resembling optimal shots right now:
Typically, what the defense is giving them are shots like the above. Sure, Murray’s open, and he probably should hit the pull-up jumper at the foul line, but look at Timofey Mozgov. He’s pretty content to give that shot up.
Integrating a new cog in an offense, a major one at that, is difficult. NBA offenses are so complex and require so much chemistry to properly execute, time must be afforded to teams going through that process.
But that doesn’t mean that the early stages of integration aren’t ugly, and that’s what we’re watching with the Nuggets. They aren’t the well-oiled machine they were last year, generating open looks and extreme efficiency. They’re taking what the defense gives them.
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Give them time, though. Let the Nuggets integrate Paul Millsap. Let a very different team get comfortable. And watch those attempts from mid-range travel all the way back to 2017.