Giannis Antetokounmpo is close to unstoppable now, and while a jumper is ostensibly the key to unlocking his potential, his teammates’ jumpers are actually far more important.
There are certain platitudes that are seemingly provided to every single NBA announcer. It’s like they have a giant Google Doc with all these fun facts and hot takes, and they have no qualms about sharing it, because it’s not like NBA League Pass exists.
I bet you didn’t know that Isaiah Thomas, who’s only 5’9”, was the 60th and final pick in the 2011 NBA Draft. Pretty radical that the New Orleans Pelicans, as everyone else is flocking to pace and space, have built their team around twin towers, eh?
Maybe these tidbits were interesting the first time you heard them, and maybe you forgot about them and found them interesting when you were reminded the second time, but by instance 3,457, you’re probably a little tired of hearing that Amir Johnson was the last player to be drafted directly out of high school.
Watch any opposing team’s broadcast of a Milwaukee Bucks game and you’ll hear one of these oft-repeated takes: Giannis is incredible now, but wait for him to develop a jumper, then he’ll be unstoppable.
On the surface, that logic is sound. Giannis is the NBA’s leading scorer, despite shooting just six of 21 (28.5 percent) on shots outside of 15 feet this year. Even when you know exactly what Giannis is going to do, it’s virtually impossible to stop him. Logically, it would follow that if he added a jumper, he’d be absolutely uncoverable.
The threat of his shot alone would break defenses, as he’d have to be covered tightly on the perimeter, and if Giannis is covered tightly on the perimeter, he’s scoring at the rim — no one is long, fast and strong enough to stay in front of Giannis and adequately contest his shot.
What is clear in all discussions of Giannis’ jumper, though, is that no one believes he needs to become a long range marksman. The whole point of Giannis developing a shot would be to open up the floor for him to get to the rim.
Behind the Buck Pass
The threat is far more valuable than the shot itself, because there’s no way a Giannis 3 will ever be as efficient as Giannis in the paint.
Giannis is shooting 72 percent in the paint (which doesn’t even account for the fouls he’s drawing). To produce as many points per-possession from 3-point range, he’d have to shoot 48 percent. Only five players in the last 100 years (minimum 100 attempts) have shot 48 percent or higher from 3 (Kyle Korver twice).
Unless Giannis can become prime Kyle Korver, you’re going to want him shooting in the paint rather than from deep. So far this season, Giannis has played to his strengths.
As mentioned above, his efficiency in the paint has been incredible. What’s arguably more impressive, though, has been his volume. Of Giannis’ 109 shots, 79 have come in the paint—a staggering 72.5 percent.
Examining his shot selection, it’s clear that both the Bucks and Giannis are aware of and have consciously played to his strengths. That is, until Thursday night against the Boston Celtics.
It’s immediately apparent the Celtics made Giannis live outside the paint. For the Bucks, that is unbelievably bad news, especially given that the Celtics’ formula is easily replicable.
Just look at these possessions from NBA.com:
Giannis brings the ball up and three defenders are waiting for him, physically blocking him from entering the paint. A fourth defender, Terry Rozier, is helping way off of Malcolm Brogdon and is also almost in the paint himself. Giannis settles for a low-percentage, 20-foot pull-up jumper.
Giannis brings the ball up again, but this time all five Celtics defenders are directly in front of him, packing the paint, so he dishes to Tony Snell on the wing. Jaylen Brown is quick enough to recover on Snell, forcing him to toss the ball back to Giannis. Giannis surveys the floor, four Celtics are in/within extreme proximity of the paint. Giannis pulls up from 19 feet.
Again, all five Celtics are within a step or two of the paint. Rookie Semi Ojeleye plays some outstanding one-on-one defense on Giannis, and the Greek Freak is forced into a turnaround 13-foot jumper.
As a Celtics fan, I can attest that on every single one of those possessions, I let out a deep sigh of relief. Giannis in the paint is a thing of nightmares; Giannis outside of the paint is a bit of a nightmare.
What should be worrisome for the Bucks is how easy this was for the Celtics. They simply packed the paint over and over, daring Giannis to beat them with weakest part of his game.
More from Hoops Habit
- The 5 most dominant NBA players who never won a championship
- 7 Players the Miami Heat might replace Herro with by the trade deadline
- Meet Cooper Flagg: The best American prospect since LeBron James
- Are the Miami Heat laying the groundwork for their next super team?
- Sophomore Jump: 5 second-year NBA players bound to breakout
So, where do the Bucks go from here?
The easiest fix is a simple one: stop playing Greg Monroe alongside Giannis. Watch the above clips again. Monroe is on the court in two, and his impact is evident. His defender gets to hang out in the paint, serving as a massive deterrent to Giannis.
In a limited role, Monroe is a useful player, but his minutes simply cannot overlap with Giannis’, or the Bucks will be inviting disaster. In a more macro sense, the Bucks need to add more shooters. The Celtics did not respect Milwaukee’s shooters enough to refrain from helping to an extreme.
Which brings us back to the announcers’ favorite platitude about Giannis: he’ll be truly unstoppable when he develops a jumper.
In reality, making Giannis truly unstoppable will be a lot easier than Giannis transforming into Kyle Korver. He doesn’t need a jumper. Because he’s so good in the paint, it couldn’t possibly be worthwhile for him to shoot from deep.
Next: 2017-18 Week 2 NBA Power Rankings
What he needs are shooters around him, guys who will make the defense pay for over-helping. Because when defenders can’t help, Giannis is on an island, and no one man can contain him.