Can the Miami Heat overcome their Orlando Magic hoodoo?

As the Miami Heat kick off their 2017-18 NBA season, their opening night battle with the Orlando Magic is one worth watching.

After the Miami Heat kicked off their 2016-17 campaign with a road win over the Orlando Magic, there was naturally much excitement and enthusiasm about what lay ahead. Unfortunately for the Heat, this optimism was very short-lived.

As has been well documented, the Heat stumbled out of the gates, and wound up posting a woeful 11-30 record come midseason. But just as well documented was their second half of the season, when the Heat stormed through the league to finish with a 41-41 record.

The second half of last season was simply one too savor. The Heat lodged an array of impressive wins, including a home win against eventual NBA champion Golden State Warriors, and a pair of wins against the Cleveland  Cavaliers and the Houston Rockets. Furthermore, the team managed to pull off a 13-game winning streak, the second-highest streak in the league over the entire regular season.

However, despite this scintillating 30-11 finish to the season, the Magic were one team the Heat were unable to figure out as they were setting the league alight.

One aspect clearly missing in their two games against the Magic during this stretch was their 3-point shooting. In the 39 other games of their 30-11 record, the Heat converted at a 39.5 percent clip from long range. Over these two contests, the Heat shot an abysmal 28 percent from downtown.

In fact, over the course of the entire 2016-17 regular season, the Heat shot at a 41 percent clip from 3-point range during their wins, and just a 31.7 percent clip when they lost.

Miami Heat

The importance of the 3-point shot was highlighted during the Heat’s recent preseason campaign in which the team posted a 3-3 record. Over the three wins, the Heat shot at a 37.9 percent clip from 3-point range, but just a 18.9 percent return during their three losses.

The difference in shooting percentages here is profound, and is clearly a gap that needs to be bridged in terms of consistency and overall performance.

Two alarming preseason performances from longv range were those from Dion Waiters and James Johnson. Over his five preseason games, Waiters shot just 2-of-14 overall, while Johnson managed to shoot an horrendous 1-of-18 over his six preseason contests. Considering the importance of these two players last season in the Heat’s second half push, these numbers will clearly need to be amended as the Heat enter their regular season campaign.

Furthermore, the Heat have now lost swingman Rodney McGruder for the foreseeable due to a lower leg stress fracture that required surgery. Having started at the small forward spot throughout the preseason, the loss of McGruder will not only be felt at the defensive end, but also from the perimeter, having shot at a 44.4 percent clip from deep during the preseason.

Also, the preseason has shown the Magic to be among most proficient in defending the 3-point line, ranking 10th overall by averaging 16.7 contests per game.

Next: 2017-18 NBA season previews, predictions and power rankings

So in looking ahead to opening night, while it’s not the end-all, be-all, the 3-point shot is going to be crucial in the Heat overcoming their unlikely nemesis.