Los Angeles Lakers: 5 reasons they won't make the playoffs in 2017-18

Los Angeles Lakers: 5 reasons they won’t make the playoffs in 2017-18

LOS ANGELES, CA - OCTOBER 10: Kyle Kuzma #0 of the Los Angeles Lakers and Alex Caruso #4 of the Los Angeles Lakers look on during the preseason game against the Utah Jazz on October 10, 2017 at STAPLES Center in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by Adam Pantozzi/NBAE via Getty Images) /

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2. They only won 26 games last year

Winning enough games to qualify for the postseason doesn’t happen in a vacuum. In order for a team to change its fate, it has to improve on its previous roster to win more games. For the Lakers, that means adding to a 26-win total enough victories to break 41 (last season’s mark for the final playoff berth) and more likely, even more than that.

It’s not the case that the Lakers were unlucky last season, and that their true talent level was higher than 26 wins before their offseason moves. Their expected win-expectancy based on point differential was 24 wins, which means the Lakers outperformed their talent level just to reach 26.

FiveThirtyEight’s CARM-Elo projections think that the West’s worst playoff team will win 46 games — or 20 more than the Lakers did last season. Brook Lopez is an upgrade over Timofey Mozgov, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is the same over D’Angelo Russell. But the teams around them are better too, negating some of their advance.

There is no superstar come to Hollywood, despite what LaVar Ball would have everyone believe. There have been great additions, yes, but not 20-win additions. This team has finished 14th or worse in three straight seasons. Digging out of that hole will not be a one-season chore.

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