Golden State Warriors: 2017-18 NBA season preview

Best-case scenario

This team is more talented than the one that won 73 games two years ago. That does not make 74 wins a baseline for a best-case scenario — the West is even better now than it was then, and the 2015-16 Warriors did “only” have the point differential of a 68-win team.

Still, 73 is very much in play. The 2016-17 Warriors bested their previous net rating, finishing with a 70-12 expected record. Their early-season and crunch-time struggles should not be repeat issues as Durant becomes fully incorporated, meaning both the team’s net rating and actual record should increase.

Add in a significantly stronger back end of the bench, and the only thing stopping the Warriors from breaking their own record will be more frequent rest patterns. The league’s new sanctions against such behavior may act as much as a dare as a deterrent for a brash owner and Gregg Popovich disciple, but the reduced number of back-to-backs should outweigh that.

If this team stays healthy and plays well in the clutch, it will win 74 games and breeze its way to another championship.

Worst-case scenario

Outside of extensive injuries or unpredictable chemistry blowups, the Warriors are not at risk of losing the No. 1 seed. Oklahoma City and Houston have 60-win upside, but Golden State has won 67 games for three straight years and is better than they ever have been.

It is conceivable, though unlikely, that Curry and Green could slightly decline. It is much more realistic that Iguodala, Livingston, West and Pachulia will drop off. If they do, it will be up to youngsters like McCaw, Jones and Bell to pick up the slack. As is almost always the case with young players, there’s a strong chance they fail to do so.

If these factors coalesce as the team experiences below-average health, it will fall into the low 60s. Anything below 62-20 and the No. 1 seed just feels too catastrophic to predict, though.