Indiana Pacers: How they can make the playoffs in 2017-18

The Indiana Pacers looked better than a lot of people expected in their first two preseason games. Can they be better than everyone thinks they will be?

Las Vegas has set the over/under in wins for the Indiana Pacers this season at 30.5. This predicts them to finish 12th in the Eastern Conference in a three-way tie with the Knicks and Magic, and a finish this low would suggest there will be no Pacers playoff basketball.

However, they are 2-0 in the preseason so far and have looked like a team that plays well together. Even playing some of their training camp guys, they have scored over 100 points in both of their games. Younger players, like T.J. Leaf and Domantas Sabonis, have looked encouraging, and all the veterans have been as advertised.

The Pacers look like they may be better than described. Can they climb high enough in the East to make the playoffs? Let’s look at a few ways they can.

The Pacers shoot 36 percent from 3-point range

Last season, 13 teams shot 36 percent or better from downtown. Ten of those teams made the playoffs, and outside of the Sacramento Kings, they all won 40 or more games.

The Pacers have the opportunity to shoot that favorably. In the starting lineup, Darren Collison, Victor Oladipo, Bojan Bogdanovic, and Thaddeus Young all shot better than 36 percent from deep last season. Off the bench, Glenn Robinson III and Jarrod Uthoff (in the G League) shot better than this percentage from long range, so it’s not just the starters that will carry the team with good shooting.

In their first preseason game against Milwaukee, the Pacers shot 35.5 percent from 3-point range. This isn’t quite the 36 percent cutoff that has been established, but the team has no chemistry yet and played some of their training camp invites, so it is reasonable to think this figure could go up as the season goes on.

The Pacers are a top 20 rebounding team

Last year, the Pacers were a very disappointing team on the glass. They finished 26th in the NBA in total rebounds, and it made things more challenging for them in many facets of the game.

To make matters worse, six of the top 10 rebounders last year are no longer on the team. Now, they are counting a lot on their youthful frontcourt to carry the team when grabbing misses.

Rebounding is a very important stat. Defensive rebounds signify the end a defensive possession with a positive outcome, and offensive rebounds keep a possession alive. Regardless of which end of the floor the rebound occurs on, if the Pacers grab it, they are on offense. Rebounding is very important for any teams.

Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis are both young enough that you can expect them to improve in the rebounding department. Thaddeus Young was the third-best at grabbing misses on the team last year, and Al Jefferson was fifth, so there is optimism that the team can upgrade its skills on the glass. If it does, it can go a long way in helping the Pacers be a competitive team, as they will have more offensive possessions.

The Pacers run fewer isolations

Last season Indiana was eighth in the league in isolation frequency. On over eight percent of their possessions, the Pacers ran an isolation play, which is one of the most inefficient plays in basketball.

Per NBA Math, isolation plays yielded 0.88 points per possession. Cutting, spot-ups, and players cutting off screens all produced a significantly higher PPP than isolations, and it is clear these plays types should be run more.

The Golden State Warriors, one of the best teams ever, very infrequently run isolations. The Celtics, the No. 1 team in the East last year, ran isos even less than Golden State. If the best teams avoid these plays, the Pacers should too.

Paul George was the big user of isos on the team last season. Almost as many of his shots were unassisted as were assisted. With him gone, the Pacers’ offense should run more efficient plays and as a result, have a more efficient offense.

Results

If the Pacers can accomplish all three of these things, they will be a tough out every night. Combined, the rebounds will make the team have more offensive possessions, and fewer isolations on these possessions will lead to better shots, both overall and from 3-point range.

Next: 10 bold predictions for 2017-18 NBA season

So, can the Pacers make the playoffs? If they can accomplish these three things, they may be better than people think, and as a result, the Pacers’ playoff chances may be higher than Vegas thinks.