Golden State Warriors: What does Carmelo Anthony trade mean for defending champs?
The Golden State Warriors are the NBA’s best team, but the gap has considerably shrunk this offseason. Is the latest move — the Oklahoma City Thunder’s acquisition of Carmelo Anthony — enough to threaten the balance of power out West?
Two big things have changed since the Golden State Warriors nearly lost in the Western Conference Finals to Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2016.
The first is that Durant, the best player on that Thunder team, is now on the Warriors. The second is that the Thunder are now better than they were then.
There are five holdovers from that 2015-16 team: Russell Westbrook, Steven Adams, Andre Roberson, Kyle Singler and Nick Collison. We can assume that this group has improved over the last two years, particularly the guys who matter.
Other guys who mattered included Kevin Durant, Serge Ibaka, Dion Waiters, Enes Kanter, Anthony Morrow and Randy Foye. They have since been replaced with Paul George, Carmelo Anthony, Alex Abrines, Patrick Patterson, Jerami Grant and Raymond Felton.
More from Golden State Warriors
- Grade the Trade: Warriors become title-favs in proposed deal with Raptors
- 5 NBA players everyone should be keeping a close eye on in 2023-24
- New detail about title-costing mistake reopens old wounds for Warriors
- 5 NBA players facing do-or-die 2023–2024 seasons
- 7 Harsh realities of the Golden State Warriors offseason
Durant is the best player from that group, but it still is not close. Sam Presti has not only admirably rebuilt this team in just 14 months since Durant’s departure, but has done so with significantly more shooting, ball handling, defensive switch-ability, lineup flexibility and overall depth than before.
All of those roster strengths are particularly useful against the Warriors.
Golden State has always exploited the Thunder’s lack of shooting by swarming the ball, even when Durant was there. As a result, Westbrook has generally struggled against them in big games. Now, there will be two elite shooting/scoring wings that the team cannot dare leave, along with a third knockdown shooter in Abrines.
The upgrade from two — Westbrook and Durant — to four — Westbrook, George, Anthony and Felton — ball-handlers is just as significant. Having a variety of looks, multiple break starters and a flexible late-clock offense is crucial against a team that is at its best when it can get back, set up and anticipate what’s coming.
While the 2016 Thunder dominated the Warriors’ small lineup on the glass, they did not have enough puzzle pieces to turn to ancillary strategies once the Warriors found their mojo. This new Thunder team cannot rebound as well (though Adams, Westbrook and Roberson are monsters), but can better adjust to Golden State’s adjustments.
They can play their three knockdown shooters next to Westbrook, or swap out Abrines for Felton to juice the ball-handling. If they need defense, they can put Roberson in that slot, and can always slide down George and insert Patterson if they want to really control the glass.
Whether or not this team is better length-wise is debatable. Their defensive lineup from 2016 of Westbrook, Roberson, Durant, Ibaka and Adams was terrifying and gave Golden State fits. But Patterson is a better switch guy than Ibaka, and Grant is a far better defender off the bench than the Thunder had two years ago.
Perhaps most importantly, while Durant played phenomenal defense during those Western Conference Finals, George is simply in a different class of defensive player. That is particularly important now, given that Durant is a Warrior.
In 2016, Durant’s length was especially impactful due to the Warriors’ lack of physically-imposing isolation players. As dominant as Stephen Curry is one-on-one, the team’s offense still thrives on ball movement and pace-pushing. As such, the ball often got caught in Durant’s 7’5″ web, whether it was a deflection at midcourt, a chasedown block or a well-timed trap.
Live Feed
FanSided
With Durant in Golden State, that same approach would not work. Durant the defender would not swallow up Durant the scorer. If Durant the defender’s length started to affect the Warriors’ ball movement, they’d just run 10 straight Curry-Durant pick-and-rolls. Unlike the Curry-Green variety, this play does not require multiple passes to be devastating.
Luckily for OKC, George is just as disruptive guarding like-sized superstars as he is as a help guy. Stopping the Warriors will always be a struggle, but putting Roberson and George on Curry and Durant with Adams protecting the back end is about as good as a team can do.
Before the Anthony trade, this did not mean much. Sure, the Thunder could slow down the Warriors, but they were still nowhere close to scoring with them. Now, they can be.
Golden State has the bodies to stop three stars. Klay Thompson can guard Westbrook. Durant can guard George, and Draymond Green can check Anthony.
But what will this do to the team structurally? Where will the rim protection come from if Green and Durant are on guys they can never leave? If Green is kept on Adams to solve this problem, the Warriors have to go small (Zaza Pachulia is not guarding Anthony). The Thunder can easily play their three stars together for 30 minutes a night. For every one of those 30 minutes that Kerr does not play Green at center, his defense will be compromised.
There is a reason three stars generally constitutes a super-team. Against Cleveland, the Warriors needed only to stop LeBron James and Kyrie Irving. Doing so put less of a strain on individual defenders, made hiding weaker defenders easier and saved more energy for offense.
Against the Thunder, these things will change. Curry cannot hide on Anthony the way he can on Kevin Love. Durant cannot be the backup George stopper (as he was the backup LeBron stopper to Andre Iguodala), because Iguodala will be the primary Anthony stopper.
Anthony is not the same player he once was. In his prime, he was nearly a Curry/Durant level scorer. Now, he’s worse than Westbrook and George. Still, he is an elite shooter and mismatch exploiter. He will make the Warriors pay for de-prioritizing him, which they absolutely will do.
Next: NBA Trade Grades - Knicks send Carmelo Anthony to Thunder
The Warriors are still the NBA’s best team. Houston adding Chris Paul and some defensive studs created an abstract idea of a potentially good series, but this is different. The Thunder are now legitimate championship contenders, the first that have emerged since Durant left them for Golden State two summers ago.