Memphis Grizzlies: 2017-18 season preview

Best-case scenario

The Grizzlies have enough talent to be a low-end playoff team. It’s hard to envision them landing anywhere much higher than seventh in the West, but if a few things go poorly for some of their competitors, they could even creep up as high as sixth. That’s exceedingly unlikely, and would require almost perfect health, as well as major contributions from all of the team’s free agency additions.

If that feels a bit like damning with faint praise, it probably is, but to play postseason basketball in the season following losing the two players that have embodied the organization’s identity for more than half a decade is a solid accomplishment, and really Memphis’ prospects are as much an issue of competitive context as they are a reflection of the team’s talent. The Grizzlies would have a much better chance of opening a playoff series at home if they played in the East.

Just making it in the West will be sufficient, and if they do then Memphis has as good a chance as any underdog to win a couple games. They took two off of a very good Spurs team last year, and their best players are still in the fold. I won’t go so far as to say that a trip to the second round of the playoffs is a possible outcome, but you’re only a little crazy if you think that’s the ultimate destiny for this team.

Worst-case scenario

I generally support the practice of keeping major injury out of worst-case scenario projections, but in this instance, where there is considerable reason to believe that injury may occur, we are going to buck that convention. As such, the Grizzlies’ worst-case scenario is grim. We’re talking about major missed time from Conley, Gasol and Parsons, plus an inability to return from career-altering injuries on behalf of Mario Chalmers and Tyreke Evans.

Should things play out this way, Memphis isn’t going to win many games. If injuries take place independently then the Grizzlies can probably get up to a win total in the high 30s. If they happen simultaneously, then then they’ll likely finish on the lower end. Either outcome would be tough to stomach for a team and fanbase with real hopes of playoff basketball.

It’s not likely that the doomsday scenario will become a reality for Memphis. I’d say it’s even less probable than the best-case option. The real outcome will most likely fall someplace in between. Let’s take a look at what it may be.