Orlando Magic: About Elfrid Payton’s contract extension

The Orlando Magic have more questions than answers heading into the new season, and top of that list is Elfrid Payton’s looming contract extension.

The Orlando Magic have just come through their most exciting offseason in recent memory.

They added an intriguing player in Jonathon Simmons, as well as respected veterans like Marreese Speights and Arron Afflalo. On top of that, they took Jonathan Isaac with the sixth pick in the 2017 NBA Draft, and he showed enough flashes in limited NBA Summer League run to warrant some excitement.

But this is the Magic we’re talking about, and for all this positivity there was bound to be some other areas that will be cause for concern. If not now, then in the near future.

Point guard Elfrid Payton‘s looming contract extension is at the top of that list, and as he enters the last year of his rookie deal the question needs to be asked: Should he be given an early extension at all?

That may seem a cruel and harsh way to look at the first three years of Payton’s career with the Magic, but it’s not without merit.

Career highs of 10.8 points per game, 6.5 assists per game and 28.9 percent 3-point shooting aren’t the kind of numbers that get young guys max contracts.

Yet that is likely the kind of money Payton wants, and he’s a position where he can also turn down whatever deal the Magic put under his nose.

The team has until Oct. 17, the day before their opening game, to sign both Payton and Aaron Gordon (who we’ll get to another time) to early extensions. Should they fail to do so, or simply choose not to, both players become restricted free agents next summer.

The team has played this both ways before, signing Nikola Vucevic to an early deal in 2014 and re-signing Evan Fournier after letting him sit out there as a restricted free agent in 2016.

In Payton’s case, it seems obvious to let him go all the way to next summer without giving him a new deal, and then re-signing him to a much more team-friendly deal.

How can the team be so confident this will happen, especially if other suitors are allowed to make an offer that the Magic would then have to match?

Because the money that flooded the league from the new TV deal has largely dried up. Oh, and we’re also living in the deepest talent pool of point guards in living memory.

Payton hasn’t put up the kind of numbers yet that suggest he will one day morph into anything more than a competent starter, and most teams already have one of those. Really, if you think about it, what team in the NBA would swap their starting point guard straight up for Payton?

There’s every reason to think he won’t be approached next summer, allowing the team to sign him to a team-friendly contract, ensuring they aren’t loaded with him for another four (or five) seasons.

It’s also a risk worth taking, as there is a suitable comparison out there that illustrates why the Magic should approach the situation in this way.

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Reggie Jackson spent the first three and a half years of his career with the Oklahoma City Thunder. He had career averages up to that point of 14.5 points, 6.0 assists and 29.9 percent 3-point shooting.

The team also had an alien named Russell Westbrook starting for the team in that position, and as Jackson’s extension loomed, the Thunder traded him to the Detroit Pistons.

From there, his new employers handed Jackson a five-year, $80 million deal that they are still only halfway through.

You’ll likely argue Jackson is the better player of the two who had more potential (he averaged 18.8 points and 6.2 assists per game his first full season with the Pistons), but that’s exactly the point.

Even with his recent injury history, most people would take Jackson over Payton, but not by much. So would you really want to give the Louisiana native a similar deal?

The Magic may have trimmed their bill for this upcoming season from a top 10 one last year to 23rd heading into this one, but is putting so much money into Payton a wise move? Especially when you consider it eats into whatever contract Gordon — thought of as the better prospect of the two — will be offered as well?

Yet despite all of this critiquing of Payton’s game and whether or not he deserves big money, there is reason for hope. Last year was the first in which his Player Efficiency Rating (17.2) pushed through the league-average barrier of 15.

An even more quirky stat he owns is the most triple-doubles in franchise history, with five. Clearly then he is impacting the team in a variety of ways when on the court.

What reinforces this notion that he is a positive influence on the court is that Payton posted a PIE (Player Impact Estimate) of 11.7 last season, the 89th highest mark in the league.

This number puts him above guys from Andre Iguodala and Klay Thompson, to Kristaps Porzingis and Willie Cauley-Stein. A diverse bunch.

So while not all fans may be happy if he is paid big money to stick around, there are some positive signs in his development, especially on the defensive end.

Really though, paying top dollar to an old-school point guard who drives and can’t shoot threes would seem a counterproductive move to building a playoff team.

Let’s not forget that the front office is under new management as well, and in drafting Jonathan Isaac they seem more open to trending in the versatile direction that the rest of the league has.

All of which is to say that the Orlando Magic shouldn’t give Elfrid Payton an early extension and instead wait and see what offers may come in on the restricted market next summer before potentially matching.

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It may panic Payton into signing for lesser money now, which would safeguard his future in an ever-changing league. Perhaps there’s no reason to worry about this extension and what it will mean for the franchise as a whole after all.