Houston Rockets: Analyzing different lineup possibilities

The Houston Rockets enter the 2017-18 season as one of the most versatile teams in the NBA. What possible lineups can they use this year?

Last season the Houston Rockets were a deep team, but they lacked versatility. Their biggest weakness was their defense, which ranked a mediocre 18th in the league. Then the offseason happened and now Houston looks poised to be one of the more versatile teams in the league and much-improved defensively.

After acquiring Chris Paul and subsequently signing P.J. Tucker and Luc Mbah a Moute (along with Tarik Black), the Rockets can throw countless lineup possibilities at opposing teams.

Let’s take a closer look at three “types” of lineups Houston should put on the floor for significant stretches this season.

1) Starting lineup

Lineup: Paul, James Harden, Trevor Ariza, Ryan Anderson, Clint Capela

Last season, Houston had a very similar starting lineup, except James Harden was the de facto point guard with Patrick Beverley playing off the ball. That lineup posted a 122.7 offensive rating and an overall net rating of +15.4. The only change to the starters is inserting Paul in for Beverley, and Paul is just as good defensively and an even better shooter.

Last season Paul shot 41.1 percent from beyond the arc, including 49.3 percent on catch-and-shoot 3-pointers. He also posted an overall effective field goal percentage of 69.1 percent on catch-and-shoot shot attempts last season. Paul’s playmaking  and shooting abilities should only make the starting lineup more deadly on offense, and Paul is no slouch on the other end of the floor.

The nine-time All-Star has consistently ranked positively according to defensive box plus-minus, and he even posted a defensive real plus-minus of 2.76 last season — good for first in the league among point guards. Plus, with Paul handling some of the offensive load, Harden should have more energy for the defensive end, allowing him to not be as much of a liability as in recent seasons (though Harden’s poor defense has been overblown for some time now).

In the end, this lineup provides everything for Houston. It has several capable shooters in Paul, Harden, Ariza and Anderson, yet also has multiple above-average defenders in Paul, Ariza and Capela. Plus, it has two big men that can feature in the pick-and-pop/roll in Anderson and Capela, making the offense even harder to guard. This lineup will be see often, and with good reason.

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2) 3-point bombers

Lineup: Paul, Harden, Gordon, Ariza, Anderson

Last season, the lineup of Harden, Beverley, Gordon, Ariza and Anderson posted a 119.5 offensive rating and surprising 99.5 defensive rating (albeit in only 36 minutes). Teams struggled to guard a lineup of five shooters, and with Harden on the floor directing traffic, he created quality looks for the surrounding shooters.

However, the lineup was seldom used due to the defensive concerns.

This season, Anderson at center is a more viable option because of the plethora of wing defenders Houston now has. Last season the Rockets didn’t have enough defenders on the perimeter to make up for Anderson’s lack of rim protection and defensive abilities. This season they can surround him with players such as Tucker and Mbah a Moute in order to still have a good defensive lineup while also getting that spacing advantage at center.

Of course, Houston could still stick with Ariza at the power forward position, and even though his 3-point shooting has fallen off in recent years (including a below-average 34.4 percent last season), he is still a more reliable shooter than Tucker or Mbah a Moute while providing similar defensive value.

In the end, Mike D’Antoni should use Anderson at center more (especially on nights where Capela or Nene are out) because he shouldn’t have concerns about the lack of defense in such lineups. The Rockets have more than enough defenders to get stops on the perimeter while Anderson torches opposing centers attempting to chase him around the arc.

3) Defensive versatility/”Death Lineup”

Possible lineups: Paul, Harden, Ariza, Mbah a Moute and Tucker

Paul, Harden, Gordon, Ariza, Tucker 

Now this is where things get fun. Of course, the Golden State Warriors have started a trend of small-ball “Death Lineups” in which they put Draymond Green at center and wreak havoc.

Of course, every team that is deemed a “contender” must be matched up with the Warriors, and in years past that has always been a problem for the Rockets. However, this season Houston should be well-equipped to match up with Golden State and counter with their own “Death Lineup.”

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The first option of such a lineup maximizes the defensive versatility for Houston. Paul, Ariza, Mbah a Moute and Tucker are all good-to-great defenders, and having them on the floor with Harden would allow the Rockets to effectively switch on every pick-and-roll/pop.

With both Harden and Paul on the floor, the role players would see quality looks on a consistent basis from beyond the arc, which would prevent the offense from stalling. Mbah a Moute shot 41.5 percent on corner 3-pointers last season while Tucker hit 45.5 percent of such attempts. It’s safe to say that when provided quality looks (especially in the corners), both can shoot well from beyond the arc.

The other variation for this lineup would provide more shooting on the floor yet not completely kill the defensive versatility a “Death Lineup” should have. Eric Gordon surprised many Rockets fans with his (for the most part) competent defense, so slotting him in to the lineup in place of say Ariza or Mbah a Moute won’t totally hamper the defense.

Yet on the offensive end Gordon would provide significantly more shooting (and secondary ball-handling capabilities), which is something Ariza, Mbah a Moute and Tucker simply can’t provide. This lineup would still be able to switch everything defensively, it would just have a little more shooting and floor-spacing around the two great guards.

Next: 10 NBA players in need of a trade in 2017-18

As you can see, the Houston Rockets are now one of the most versatile teams in the NBA, with the ability to blow you out with a barrage of 3-pointers or put the clamps on you defensively. Hopefully these three lineup types will be seen consistently throughout the year, with each one providing unique advantages for the Rockets.