Houston Rockets: 5 bold predictions for 2017-18 NBA season
2. James Harden will average 30 points per game
Many were surprised to find James Harden led the league in assists last season at 11.2 per game. People always knew he was a gifted passer, but surround him with quality pick-and-roll partners (Capela and Nene) and an abundance of shooters (Gordon, Anderson, Ariza, etc.) and you get one of the greatest passing seasons in recent league history.
Harden’s passing often leads to his impressive scoring being overlooked. Harden set a career-high in points per game last season at 29.1, and did so while shooting a respectable 44 percent from the field.
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However, Harden actually shot a career-low from beyond the arc last season (34.7 percent), leaving room for his scoring numbers to improve this season as he moves to playing more off the ball.
Playing alongside Paul should allow Harden to get more open catch-and-shoot looks. Last season Harden posted an effective field goal percentage of 57.2 on catch-and-shoot attempts, but he posted an even better 60.3 eFG% in the 2015-16 season.
Harden will receive more of those looks this season as Paul directs traffic at times. If Harden reverts back to his average shooting percentage behind the arc (36.4 percent) and continues to feast on catch-and-shoot attempts, he should easily be able to average 30 points per game this season.
Therefore, while Harden’s eye-popping passing numbers will surely drop, his scoring (and efficiency) should make a slight increase in his adjusted role.