5 upperclassmen to keep an eye on for the 2018 NBA Draft
By Max Holm
While the majority of the attention for the 2018 NBA Draft focuses on freshmen and sophomores, don’t sleep on these upperclassmen.
Look at the top of early mock drafts and big boards for the 2018 NBA Draft and you’ll find the same names. Michael Porter Jr., Marvin Bagley III, Luka Doncic — they’re all freshmen or freshmen-aged players. Look a little past them and you’ll find more freshmen and then some sophomores. What you won’t find are college juniors or seniors.
Ever since the one-and-done era, NBA teams are more likely to gamble on a 19-year-old than established college players. Look at someone like Buddy Hield and you can see why. There are exceptions of course, like Jimmy Butler, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and Damian Lillard, among others. However, they feel more like anomalies.
The contrast between younger and older prospects ties interestingly into NBA Draft discussions. Older players are more likely to have higher floors, but for the most part have lower ceilings. Younger players, on the other hand, are riskier bets with lower floors, but typically have higher ceilings. Take the 2017 NBA Draft. We have no clue how good Lonzo Ball could become, so he has a ridiculously high ceiling and goes No. 2 overall.
His first round classmate and teammates, Josh Hart, went right before the second round. Hart could get better or become a fringe All-Star, but we know more or less what he can or can’t do. After seeing scoring upperclassmen like Jimmer Fredette and Hield struggle in the NBA, it takes a lot these days for a senior or junior to go high in the draft.
However, after the surefire (as surefire as you can get) freshmen are off the board, upperclassmen are much safer bets. If you find those with legitimate NBA skill-sets, shooting, rebounding and defensive versatility, you may be better off investing in them than someone like Justin Patton or D.J. Wilson. Here are five such players that fit that bill as upperclassmen. These five guys figure to have promise as key NBA role players. That brings incredible value.