The Hamptons 5, part 4: Draymond Green

Welcome to the “Hamptons 5” series, a five-part look at the Golden State Warriors’ legendary lineup. We will break down each player, looking at where they rank in the league as well as on their own team, what they’ve accomplished as well as where they are headed. In Part 4, we look at Draymond Green.

To varying degrees, four members of the Golden State Warriors‘ superstar lineup were expected to be great.

Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson may have fallen in the lottery, but they are both sons of NBA players and looked like future stars by the end of their respective rookie seasons. Andre Iguodala was a top-10 pick, billed as the leader of the post-Allen Iverson Sixers. By the time Kevin Durant set foot on the floor at the University of Texas, it appeared more likely than not that he would win multiple scoring titles.

On a team of supposed underdogs, Draymond Green is only guy who was really not supposed to be here. He was a prolific college player, but his age, weight and height made him an afterthought. If the choices were “solid starter” or “flameout,” most votes would have been on the latter. His ascension to the top of the NBA, both in terms of team success, individual accolades and celebrity remains shocking, even several years after it began.

Let’s take a look back on how Green got here, where exactly “here” is and where he is going.

What Green has accomplished

Career stats: 9.0 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 4.1 APG, 1.4 SPG, 1.0 BPG, 1.8 TOV, 43.5 FG%, 33.4 3P%, 69.5 FT%

Resume: 2016-17 NBA Defensive Player of the Year, two-time All-Star, three-time All-Defensive First Team, one-time All-NBA Second Team, one-time All-NBA Third Team, two-time NBA champion

Highlights: Triple-double in last game of 2015 NBA Finals, 32-15-9 in Game 7 of the 2016 NBA Finals, myriad of game-winning defensive plays and these two blocks:

There are so many facets to Green’s career that picking an angle from which to frame it seems arbitrary.

We could discuss how Green embodies the new NBA. How just five years ago, the entire league misclassified the 6’7″ Green as a position-less tweener, rather than as a multi-position dynamo. How he was seen as a player with no strengths, rather than one with no weaknesses.

We could also discuss how despite the league’s misevaluation, Green was by no means a marquee player right away. How his extreme physical transformation and undying drive to improve turned him, year by year, from a sparkplug bench player to a rotation guy to a starter to a star.

Where Green ranks on the Warriors

If you have been following this series, the suspense is gone: Green is No. 3 on the Warriors. We established why he was ahead of Thompson in Part 1, and below Durant in Part 2.

However, in terms of vitality to the Warriors’ success, it can be argued that Green ranks ahead of all but Curry.

Durant is arguably the most unguardable player of all-time. For Golden State, though, he is a trump card. The presence of Curry and Thompson makes, though not all, many of Durant’s skills redundant.

Golden State Warriors /

Golden State Warriors

The same cannot be said for Green. Everything he does either fuels Curry and Thompson (the grab-and-go rebounds, the turnover forcing, the roll-man playmaking, the floor spacing) or protects them (the double-teaming, the switching, the backend protection).

Behind the Big 3 of Curry, Thompson and Green, the Warriors became one of the most devastating teams the league has seen. Durant takes that team to another level, but would they even be at the same base level if Durant were simply replacing Green?

It is an impossible question to answer from an on-court perspective. On one hand, Durant and Curry may be the best duo in NBA history. It is not crazy to imagine an all-time team being born of that, with or without Green. On the other hand, Green’s team success and advanced stats dwarfed those of Durant the year before they joined forces.

When you factor in Green’s leadership, it may not actually be so close. The Green-less Warriors would still be an offensive juggernaut of epic proportions and perennial title favorites. But they would also lack a rallying force when things got tight, an I-want-it-more-than-you guy in decisive games and an all-time defense to rely on when shots were not falling.

Durant is the Warriors’ second-best player, but they can better afford to lose him than Green.

Where Green ranks in the NBA

In Part 1, we established why Thompson ranks ahead of Green as a pure basketball player:

"“Defense is simply not worth as much as offense from an individual player. Offenses have two inherent advantages — the power to give the ball to its best players and to target the defense’s worst players — that make this so. Green’s ability to guard every position, protect the rim and help all over the court nearly breaks this rule, but not when compared to other elite defenders who are also offensive stars.”"

Using this logic, we went on to establish LeBron James, Curry, Durant, Kawhi Leonard, James Harden, Russell Westbrook, Chris Paul, John Wall, Anthony Davis, Kyle Lowry and Thompson as superior players to Green.

This leaves Jimmy Butler, Paul George, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Gordon Hayward, Damian Lillard, Kyrie Irving, Isaiah Thomas and Rudy Gobert (sorry Boogie, KAT and Jokic) as Green’s competition for the 12-20 spots. To determine the order, we can refer back to Part 1:

"“However, the player-ranking criteria changes once you move below the top tier. If a player is not capable of leading his team deep into the playoffs as the fulcrum, his complementary skills become more valuable than his creation ability.”"

This immediately eliminates Lillard, Irving and Thomas. While their shooting and scoring makes them great second options, they fall short in the other important support areas: Defense, rebounding, screen setting, ball moving, hustle plays. Hayward is eliminated as a non-elite support guy on either end. Antetokounmpo lacks the feel to maximize his complementary skills right now, and he really just needs to shoot better.

Butler tops this list. His defense, cutting and secondary-ball handling are all special, and he’s a good passer and decent shooter. George is next; his support offense is only slightly worse than that of Lillard/Irving/Thomas, while his defense and rebounding are substantially better.

Gobert is the best rim protector in the league, a top-five rebounder and an elite pick-and-roll finisher. He’s as complementary as it gets at the center position — unless you are counting Green. He can approximate 80 percent of Gobert’s traditional center impact, and also guards every position, helps all over the court, spaces the floor, pushes the ball in transition and makes plays out of the pick and roll.

He’s the NBA’s No. 14 player.

Predicting Green’s 2017-18 numbers

Green’s numbers dropped in Durant’s first season with the Warriors, but the correlation is weak, at best. The categories in which Green struggled — field goal and 3-point percentage — were ones in which he should have improved, given the attention Durant commands.

The dropoff was supposed to come in assists, given that Durant is another playmaking forward who figured to replace much of Green’s break-starting and pick-and-roll duties. In actuality, Durant took assists less from Green and more from the ether. The Warriors, who led the league with 27.4 assists in 2014-15 and 28.9 in 2015-16, jumped yet another assist and a half last year, averaging 30.4.

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Green did drop from 9.5 to 7.9 rebounds, and from 14.0 to 10.4 points. Replacing Harrison Barnes with Durant will do that. It is reasonable to expect similar numbers next year, with a slight scoring increase coming due to a slight regression to the mean percentage-wise.

The biggest question is his steal numbers. Green had never averaged more than 1.6, but led the NBA last year with 2.0. If this was a symptom of his Defensive Player of the Year pursuit, that number should drop. If it was a new style of even-more aggressive help defense due to the loss of Andrew Bogut and Festus Ezeli, it should stay in that range.

The same can be said for his career high-tying 1.4 blocks. Regardless of the reason, blocks and steals tend to peak in a player’s mid-20s. At 27, we should see a slight downturn for Green.

2017-18 Projections: 10.6 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 6.9 APG, 1.7 SPG, 1.3 BPG, 2.2 TOV, 44.1 FG%, 34.0 3P%, 69.5 FT%

Where Green is headed

If the Warriors win two more titles, Green is a Hall of Fame lock. If they win one more, he needs only a couple more All-Star and All-Defensive appearances to secure a spot in Springfield. Through five years, Green has accomplished more than most players do in a career.

That’s important, because there’s a high probability he begins to decline soon.

There’s not a lot of excess skill in Green’s game. He doesn’t block shots with his elbow, à la Antetokounmpo or Hassan Whiteside. He can finish above the rim, but he teeters on the edge of the rim finishing him. He rebounds, shoots with his legs and buzzes across 94 feet. Every part of his game will suffer dramatically once he loses a step.

Next: Ranking NBA teams by tiers for the 2017-18 season

At the same time, Green is as cerebral and durable as anyone. When he does lose his shot, leaping and agility, he will essentially become the player he was as a rookie. His development into an elite athlete has taken him to heights that few will ever reach, but what makes him an effective NBA player — head, hustle and heart — has never and will never change.

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