The Denver Nuggets will be a better team thanks to the addition of Paul Millsap. But they lost their team’s leading scorer and one of their only true small forwards.
It’s late August and that means offseason report cards are beginning to permeate through the NBA blogosphere. There will be a common theme among any and all such posts regarding the Denver Nuggets: a round of applause for their acquisition of Paul Millsap.
They added a defensive game-changer and a basketball savant. What’s more is they acquired him at an exceptional price. They improved without damaging their future. For this move alone, the Nuggets’ offseason will be lauded, and deservedly so. But that doesn’t mean it was a flawless summer for the Denver brass.
The team was prepared for the loss of small forward Danilo Gallinari in free agency. Gallo is growing older and approaching the backend of his injury-plagued career. They were ready to let him go, but the loss is substantial nonetheless.
Gallinari led the Nuggets in scoring last year with 18.2 points per game. He was the best individual scorer in the starting lineup and the team’s biggest threat from the free throw line. That type of production is hard to replace. Most of Denver’s offense was the result of crisp ball movement, but when things stalled and the Nuggets needed points, Gallinari was their guy.
It’s not just about Gallinari’s production at the position though. It’s about Denver’s depth at the 3 — or lack thereof. According to ESPN‘s depth chart for Denver’s upcoming season, they have five power forwards on the roster, and that’s if you include forward Darrell Arthur as a backup center (which you shouldn’t, because he isn’t one).
Denver might try to sell you on its ability to convert a lot of their power forwards into real wings, but none of those players are long-term solutions at the position. The names they have in mind are players like Juan Hernangomez and Tyler Lydon — stretch-4s with decent quickness and length who are reasonable candidates as part-time 3s.
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But neither player is ready to contribute serious minutes at the 3. Tyler Lydon will struggle to get on the court at all this year, let alone contribute from multiple positions. The Juancho-on-the-wing project is an interesting one, but he struggled at the 3 in NBA Summer League this year.
Hernangomez is not a poor athlete, but he looks awkward with the ball in his hands. His handles just aren’t good enough to get him past his defender and through the teeth of the defense. He’s money as a spot-up shooter, but he’s not capable of creating his own offense just yet.
Then there’s the defense. To put it simply, Hernangomez just isn’t ready to guard small forwards in the NBA, let alone the small army of elite wings residing out West. Paul George, Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler/Andrew Wiggins — Hernangomez will get eaten alive.
This leaves Denver with one real small forward on their entire roster: Wilson Chandler. That the Nuggets are stuck with one wing is a problem. That the wing happens to be Chandler is not. Gallinari led the team in points per game last year, but Chandler was third. Granted, it took him a team-leading 13.2 field goal attempts per game to do so.
There will be some drop-off. Chandler can’t create points on his own quite the way Gallinari can. He doesn’t draw fouls at the rate that Gallo does, and he’s a worse 3-point shooter.
That being said, he’s still an effective offensive player and a versatile defender as well. He’s quick enough to guard 3s and strong enough to hold his own against most 4s, especially in today’s league. Chandler has logged almost all of his minutes as a small forward, but his versatility can create matchup problems. He’s a very useful piece.
Chandler isn’t the worst option for a Gallinari replacement but the depth is still a major issue. The Nuggets are limited in their options both internally and externally. Denver has some cap space remaining, but it has 14 players on the roster. Plus, it’s extended multiple two-way contracts. The Nuggets can’t bring anyone on without consolidating this roster. Someone has to go.
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The major candidates here are Kenneth Faried and Darrell Arthur. The two forwards combine to take up 20 percent of Denver’s cap space and both will see their roles decline this year.
In a perfect world, the Kyrie Irving trade gets voided and Boston finds itself in a scramble to move Jae Crowder. Denver would have much use for a player like Crowder, but Boston likely has no interest in either of those contracts without a major asset attached.
The free agent pool is light, but potential reinforcements do dwell in the remaining group of available players. Long-time veteran and defensive stud Tony Allen is still available. He’s not a starting option at this point in his career, but he’s still a plus defender and Denver needs those badly. He could conceivably come off the bench behind Chandler.
Another name that comes to mind is Shabazz Muhammad. The 24-year-old former Bruin is still available as an unrestricted free agent. The Timberwolves pulled his qualifying offer, but have made an effort to bring him back, although the Wolves can only offer him the minimum.
But they won’t be the only buyers on the small forward market. New Orleans wing Solomon Hill has received surgery on a torn hamstring and may miss most of the season. They might end up pursuing these players as well.
Story on ESPN: New Orleans loses starter Solomon Hill to hamstring surgery, could miss most of season. https://t.co/w1VAIp89Rg
— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) August 27, 2017
Denver will have to do something. Depth is important and the Nuggets literally have none at the position. That thought becomes especially troublesome when you consider that Chandler was reportedly unhappy with his role in Denver last year. Perhaps moving into the starting rotation will appease him, but Chandler’s morale is still of concern.
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Denver’ offseason was a successful one. They grabbed an All-Star and improved defensively. It’s hard to see them trending anywhere but up. But they failed to address and important problem at the small forward position. Now, they’re running out of options.