Miami Heat: 5 bold predictions for 2017-18 NBA season
By Simon Smith
2. Hassan Whiteside is traded
No one is denying Whiteside’s impact and importance to the Heat last season.
After signing a four-year, $94.4 million contract last offseason, Whiteside averaged 17.0 points, 14.1 rebounds and 2.1 blocks per game. Playing 77 games, Whiteside established himself as one of the more dominant low post performers in the league at both ends of the floor.
But despite all this, the modern game is changing at a rapid rate. The days of the traditional, low-post, dominant center are vanishing rapidly. And those teams that do employ and start such players generally do so for limited stretches.
The teams that won at least 60 games last year, the NBA champion Golden State Warriors and the San Antonio Spurs, each had starting centers who played limited minutes (Zaza Pachulia for the Warriors at 18.1 minutes per game; Dewayne Dedmon of the Spurs at 17.5 minutes per game).
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The main issue for centers such as Whiteside is at the defensive end. Despite his shot-blocking capabilities and athleticism around the basketball, the numbers say otherwise in terms of his defensive impact. Last season, the Heat had a defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions) of 105.3 with Whiteside on the court, and 102.2 when he was resting.
While great around the basket, the increasing prevalence of stretch-5s is real cause for concern. One prime example last season was a game against the Brooklyn Nets, where center Brook Lopez hit six of his nine 3-pointers in the first half alone on his way to 33 points. However, after Whiteside played 18 minutes in the first half, the Heat turned things around with Whiteside playing just three minutes after the main break.
The reason: the Heat employed backup center Willie Reed will the responsibility of covering Lopez, which he did with aplomb in his 17 second half minutes. In fact, Reed finished the game with an astounding defensive rating of 66.0, while Whiteside’s was an ugly 144.9.
This offseason, the Heat clearly saw this as a sticking point with the signing of free agent center Kelly Olynyk.
Last season as a member of the Boston Celtics, Olynyk averaged 2.7 contests on 3-point shots per game, which ranked seventh in the league among all centers — despite his 21.0 minutes being significantly fewer than minutes than those ranked ahead of him. By way of comparison, Whiteside averaged 1.4 contests in his 32.0 minutes per game.
Furthermore, Whiteside is 28, and it is hard to see him getting significantly better in the coming seasons. Packaging Whiteside for a more versatile and rangy player at either the 3- or 4-spot would enable the Heat to slide Olynyk into the starting center position, while at the same time presenting a more flexible lineup at both ends of the court.
With team president Pat Riley always on the lookout for further upgrades, offloading Whiteside could be a real possibility this upcoming season.